Monday, July 11, 2016
Moving higher as the Dow climbed 80 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 set a new all time closing high. The caveat here again is the light volume. I do not trust light volume rallies. Other major indices are not close to setting new all time highs. I do not think that this is the beginning of some huge push forward. But you cannot argue with price. My guess is that we'll be solid this week with the positive option expiration bias. After that we will have to wait and see. GE gained a penny on good volume. We did finish well off the highs of the day here. We did see a new yearly high here as well. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU was up a point, while GDX was flat. Volume was light. Gold and the gold shares are due a rest. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The small stocks are doing OK here so I don't think we'll see an imminent collapse. But I don't see a rip roaring move to the upside like we've seen since the sharp 2 day sell off a couple weeks ago. A light volume drift higher would be the preferred scenario in my mind. We are overbought on the technical indicators but it is not uncommon to stay that way. I'm still looking out to the August and September SPY puts. For now patience is required. Asia and Europe had very good gains last night. We were not as strong today as they were overseas. We'll see if that trend continues.