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Friday, July 01, 2016

A slight gain today as the Dow rose 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to go higher.  It was a lackluster session compared to the previous days in the week.  Traders headed out early for the long holiday weekend I suppose.  I dumped the SPY July puts that I had for an 80% loss.  Not good execution going in and really bad on the exit.  The market doesn't care.  You've just got to keep moving on.  Short term overbought now on some of the technical indicators for the major stock indices.  But the VIX has moved below the 16 level.  There is probably more rally to go here.  GE was basically flat today on OK volume.  Gold soared $25 on the futures today as the US dollar was weaker.  Beginning of the month and quarter money flows perhaps?  The XAU gained almost 5 points, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was average.  We broke out to the upside from the months long consolidation in the gold shares.  There's no telling how long this can go on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade to lament as I certainly was not anticipating a sharp V shaped recovery in stocks this week.  The overall market was stronger that the Dow today so there is probably more room to run.  I was looking for new all time highs in the S&P a week or so ago.  Maybe we will get there this time.  One of the indicators that I use says there is still a long way to go before we get to an overly bullish sentiment.  The financial press is also still cautious and they are generally wrong.  So I'll be back to looking for higher prices into the July expiration.  Once again Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  I'll have to regroup over the weekend as my confidence is now down after this latest trading debacle.  There are 9 days to go in the July option cycle.  The employment report next Friday should be the next major market mover.  A long summer holiday weekend is up next.  Time for a break.

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