Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Another day another new all time high as the Dow rose 36 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. No change in the near term market outlook. Higher prices are still in the forecast. I sometimes think that perhaps I should just buy some SPY calls and for get about it. But it is too late for that. No overhead resistance for the Dow and the S&P. GE was off a bit over 1/8 on average volume. Still just waiting for Fridays earnings here. Gold dropped over $15 on the futures, while the US dollar was only slightly higher. The gold shares got clobbered. The XAU lost 6 1/3 and GDX fell 1 2/3. Volume was heavy. The pause in the gold shares is here. We'll see how far they drop because they were extremely overbought on all accounts. I do not think it will last very long though. The positive seasonal period of August/September is coming up. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Quite a move since the fallout from the vote in England. I certainly didn't expect it. Earnings are coming in better than expected and that is providing legs for the rally. I'm not sure how long this will last but it usually goes longer than anyone expects. My idea is still the same. Wait for some kind of negative divergence and then get some SPY puts. Patience is still the word for now. Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on what transpires tonight.