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Friday, December 29, 2017

Not sure what we saw today as the market fell apart in the final half hour.  The Dow fell 118 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending higher.  Probably just some end of the year squaring off in the final minutes today because there wasn't any news to account for the move.  It did cause the short term technical indicators to roll over though.  I still expect a strong start to the new year for stocks.  Perhaps I'll take a closer look at the SPY January calls over the long weekend.  GE was up about a dime and the volume remains heavy.  My open order is still out there and I'll leave it open in case we get a decline on Tuesday morning.  But I doubt it.  I still think that GE will be finding buyers as the new year begins and I'm afraid that I just didn't get filled on this trade.  Gold added $7 and the US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU and GDX were little changed at the close on light volume.  The gold shares have stalled despite a drop in the greenback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A little spike in the VIX on the close but I don't think that it is the start of a serious decline for stocks.  I would be surprised if the beginning of the year brings lower prices.  But I could be wrong.  GE is another story and I may just be too late there.  The Bollinger bands have contracted to the point where something substantial is going to happen.  My belief is that it will be to the upside.  I'll ponder the possibilities over the weekend.  I finished the trading year with a loss of 15%, mainly due to the laddering of the SPY puts in October.  I suppose it could have been worse.  However it doesn't matter now as it's on to 2018.  I'm guessing we won't see another year that was mainly higher all the time.  Not even a 5% correction for the S&P 500 in 2017 if I remember things correctly.  I really don't think that will be case as we roll the calendar forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower with the exception of the FTSE in last nights trade.  Plenty of charts to check over the weekend to come up with a winning strategy to start off the new year.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Stocks climbed in the final half hour and that led the Dow to a gain of 63 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  It was another record close for the Dow in the quest for 25000.  We should get there next week to start off the new year.  Nothing has changed technically speaking.  We're still overbought and staying that way.  GE lost a couple cents and the volume remains heavy.  I adjusted my open order for the January calls here.  I'll pay more for them if it gets filled but I'll also be buying less contracts.  If this doesn't get filled tomorrow, that may be it for this idea.  Gold was up $5 as the US dollar continues to drop.  I'm not sure that I can trust what is happening in these two markets considering the lack of players at their desks.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on extremely light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll finish out the trading year tomorrow.  I finished with a small loss.  I'll calculate the numbers tonight and give a final report tomorrow.  Attempting to ladder up the SPY puts in October was my biggest blunder.  I did have some nice winners along the way during the year as well though.  Moving the trading office in the autumn was more of a hassle than I expected.  None of this matters going forward.  I am now looking at the SPY January calls as well but it may be too late for that.  We'll see what happens with GE tomorrow.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week and the year on Friday.

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Another lackluster day of trading the Dow rose 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still in an upwards drift.  The same story as yesterday and all the technical conditions remain overbought.  The market is in holiday mode.  GE dropped another nickel on heavy volume.  I'll have to adjust my price for the January options if I want to get filled before the year ends.  My premium price target won't get filled unless were see a decent drop for GE in the next couple of days and I do not anticipate that will happen.  Gold added $4 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on less volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report on todays market activity.  We are at the point of just waiting for the year to end.  I don't expect any big moves in the final two days.  I'll try and get into the GE January call trade before the close on Friday.  But I'm not going to pay more than I want for this idea.  Some of my indicators for the SPY are getting close to a buy signal despite the overall overbought condition of the market.  Perhaps I'll take a closer look there tonight.  Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed last night.  It is slow all around the world this week.  We'll expect more of the same tomorrow.  

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

The Dow fell 7 points in lackluster trading.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was extremely light.  The summation index is trying to grind higher.  We're in holiday mode and you can pretty much write this week off.  There's not much economic data coming out and most of the players are away from their desks.  Tread lightly and try to set up your trades for the beginning of the year if you can.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was pretty good.  I'm still trying to get the January calls here.  Gold rose $9 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 2/3, while GDX was up 1/3.  Volume was what passes for average these days.  The gold shares have had a pretty good couple of weeks and have broken above the short term declining tops line.  I'm not sure how long this can last though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Not much else to say about todays price action.  The thin trading puts little meaning into whatever the results end up being.  We'll have another three days of this.  The overbought technical condition of the market persists.  As it has for the past year.  We're overdue for some type of decline but to try and predict when it will occur has been a losing proposition for quite some time.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  On to Wednesday.  

Friday, December 22, 2017

Today was simply a drift as expected as the Dow fell 28 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is trying to drift higher but has no conviction.  The VIX remains under 10.  No news to report and all technical conditions remain the same.  GE was up 3 cents and the volume here remains pretty good.  I'm still looking to get some January calls before the new year.  Gold found a bid and was up $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought for the stock indices but there isn't anything in the way of higher prices.  I'd expect some type of small Santa Claus rally to begin next week.  However I'd also look for slow trading and thin volume.  Monday is a day off and then it's simply a holiday week.  Many players won't be at their desks.  Tread lightly is my advice.  I still don't have any SPY trades in mind but I will be looking at the long side there.  Otherwise it's time to take a break.  I will check the charts eventually this weekend but taking a step back is what I really have in mind.  Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade.  Happy Holidays to everyone.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We were up over 100 at one point during the session but faded in the afternoon.  It is already feeling like holiday mode for the markets and tomorrow should be a non event.  I'm expecting a drift higher for the next week.  Not much else to report.  GE was basically flat on the day and came off of its highs as well.  My order for the January calls remains open.  Gold and the US dollar were flat today as well.  It is that kind of atmosphere.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing new to report with the holiday approaching.  We are basically going to grind to a halt, with no meaningful activity until the new year.  We may see a mild Santa Claus rally but we've had such a good year already that I don't expect any big gains anytime soon.  I could be wrong but probably not this time around.  I'll still try and get my GE option order filled before the new year but at this rate I may have to increase what I'll pay for them.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow ahead of a long holiday filled weekend.

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Another breather for the stock market as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The tax bill has made it through Congress and awaits the presidents signature.  But like I've already said, what's left to drive prices higher after this?  Overdue, really for some type of pullback.  The technical condition remains the same, very overbought.  It's been this way for weeks on end and it has to end at some point.  There's still no overhead resistance so perhaps the Santa Claus rally will take effect as usual.  GE fell 1/8 on heavy volume.  Possibly starting another leg down here as we've broken through the near term support.  I've still got my open order in for the January calls here but adjusted down the price I'll pay today.  So I've lowered the strike price and the amount I'll pay in the past couple of sessions.  Maybe I should simply forget about this and move on to something else.  Gold was up almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar slipped just a bit.  The XAU gained almost 1 1/2 while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was higher than yesterday.  We've seen the gold shares rise this week so far despite an uptick in short term rates.  Interesting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a couple trading days remain before we switch into holiday mode.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  As much as I'd like to see a decline, the trend is up and has been for quite some time.  You can't fight that but we are extremely over extended.  The short term sell signals here haven't worked for a while and every small decline has been bought.  Until we see this change, I'll be on the sidelines with respect to the S&P.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

A pause to refresh today as the Dow fell 37 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to get going to the upside but is still stuck in a sideways mode.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We are still very overbought any way that you look at it.  The VIX perked up a little today but it doesn't look like anything serious.  That said, a decline of some sort is due at any time now.  The distance from the 50 day moving average in some of the major indices cannot be ignored.  We are in a positive seasonal time frame but that doesn't mean that we can't see some pullback in the near term.  Even if that does occur, I still feel that the Dow 25000 is coming sooner rather than later.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  I canceled my open order for the GE January calls and re-entered it at a lower strike price.  We've been in a sideways channel here for about a month and it looks like the bottom of the channel is about to break.  I would still like to be in this trade before the end of the year.  Gold was flat on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tax bill looks like it will get passed this week.  After that happens, what is left to drive stocks higher in the near term?  A pause would be healthy for the overall condition of the market.  Let the indicators work off the overbought condition and prepare for the next leg up.  Simply continuing straight up would be a recipe for disaster in my opinion.  But I've been wrong before.  The market will be in holiday mode next week so what happens the rest of this week will be important in my view.  So we'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Monday, December 18, 2017

A positive start to the week as the Dow gained 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to head up but we'll need to see another day like today to really break the sideways mode.  The NASDAQ did break the 7000 barrier during the session.  Just waiting on Dow 25000 at this point,  What happens after that is up for discussion but there remains no overhead resistance.  We are getting further away from the 50 day moving average in several indexes.  Not to mention the technical indicators are extremely overbought.  So some type of pause or decline here is way overdue.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  I adjusted my open order down a bit as the time decay for the January calls here is in effect.  I'm still a believer in this idea but it may not be the best one.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar softened.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was light.  Still no real interest in gold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The party rolls on for stocks with seemingly nothing standing in the way of even higher prices.  You have to admit that if the tax bill passes corporate profits will indeed be going up.  At the moment there are enough votes to pass the bill in the House and Senate.  This is probably one of the reasons that stocks seem to simply be on fire.  However we all know how parabolic advances end and it isn't pretty.  But for now we'll just enjoy the ride.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

Friday, December 15, 2017

Record highs abound as the Dow gained 143 points on extremely heavy expiration volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  It's a march to 25000 for the Dow in my opinion.  Overbought, staying there and what more can I say?  There are no sellers and when they do arrive buyers aren't far behind.  We are living in a huge bull run.  I can't say when it will end.  We are extended any way you look at it but it simply hasn't mattered.  Only something out of the blue can derail this thing.  If the tax bill succeeds corporate profits will rise.  That can only mean higher stock prices.  Stay long and look for calls.  GE was up 18 cents on heavy volume.  I'm still waiting for my open order to be filled here.  If it isn't done by the end of the year, I'll be canceling this trade.  I do expect some buying in GE at the beginning of the new year.  Gold was up a buck or so but did finish off of its highs.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Obviously no interest here.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Enjoy the ride as prices trend higher.  We really need to see some type of breather because things are getting pretty far from the 50 day moving average.  I don't mean a day or so of lower prices like we saw this week.  I mean something in the 3% to 5% range that we haven't even seen this year.  That would make for a more healthy run.  Because we are starting to look like we want to head straight up.  Perhaps that would get us to 25000 but it would not look pretty when it drops.  Parabolic moves always end badly.  We're not there yet but it is a possibility.  Perhaps the market will take a rest after the tax bill vote but that remains to be seen.  Moving into the January option cycle and it has an extra week in it and the holidays as well.  Premiums are a bit high for now.  I don't have any SPY trades in the works at the moment.  I'll wait to see what happens with the GE January call open order and go from there.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend as usual and looking for the next trade.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed to finish off the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, December 14, 2017

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving basically sideways but another day like today would change that.  No real reason for the selling other than the short term overbought condition of the market.  Retail sales were better than expected and interest rates remain in check despite yesterdays rise in short term rates.  The RUT was weak again today and is usually a leader but that hasn't worked out lately.  I don't think that this is the beginning of anything sustainable but we'll see.  GE was off over a dime on what passes for average volume these days.  My option ticket for the January calls is getting closer to being punched.  A bit more downside should do it.  Gold rose $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not sure what to expect from the market after the option expiration this week.  Next week will be the last full week of trading for the year.  After that we'll go into holiday mode with many players out for that week.  I don't expect any sharp moves one way or the other.  I think that the passing of the tax plan is already in the market.  If we get some delay on that bill, we could see some selling.  But I don't think anything significant is in the works marketwise near term.  It should be more of the same with a drift higher in price.  Probably new all time highs set each week as we move along.  Perhaps we'll see a near term drift lower to reset the technical indicators before a new move up.  That's a guess as usual.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 80 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Sideways movement usually precedes a drop in the summation index when it is in positive territory so we'll see what happens this time around.  It could move sideways for weeks though.  The Fed came and went.  All went as expected.  Retail sales tomorrow could be a catalyst.  The market remains overbought with new all time highs on the Dow.  The S&P was slightly negative today.  But I don't see any reasons not to expect higher prices going forward.  GE was off 15 cents and the volume was lighter.  Still waiting on my open order for the January calls here to be filled.  A bit more downside or time decay should do the trick.  Gold was up $16 as the US dollar dropped today despite the rise in short term rates.  I certainly cannot explain any of that.  The XAU soared 3 points, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume picked up on the rise and that's bullish.  One day doesn't make a trend however.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow continues its climb towards 25000 and I'm guessing that we'll get there before the end of the year.  The positive seasonal effect of December is in full swing.  We are pretty far away from the 50 day moving average and that will have to correct itself eventually.  But for now it's still up, up and away.  The market can stay overbought for quite some time and we've definitely seen that a lot this year.  Stay long, look for calls and enjoy the ride.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a gain of 118 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today with the NASDAQ showing a loss.  Waiting on the Fed tomorrow and I don't expect any surprises.  The song remains the same with a new intra-day high for the Dow and the S&P 500 as well.  Short term overbought and staying there.  GE came to life today and was up 1/4 on good volume.  My open order hasn't been filled but I'll be leaving it out there.  I don't expect a rally here for GE.  Perhaps some more tax loss selling before the end of the year.  I would like to be in this trade before the end of the year.  I expect that there will be some bargain buying or dogs of the Dow purchases at the beginning of 2018.  Gold was little changed and the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are seeing the usual positive option expiration week bias so far.  The technical condition of the market remains overbought.  There are no negative divergences that I see at the moment.  There is nothing standing in the way of higher prices.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe had gains overnight.  We'll see how things shape up with the Fed tomorrow.

Monday, December 11, 2017

More of the same as the Dow added 56 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  My guess is that it will as there is nothing standing in the way of higher prices.  We'll get the Fed announcement on Wednesday and I don't see any surprises coming out of that.  My idea of a decline here was wrong and the positive seasonality should kick in for the rest of the month as well.  Unless we get something out of left field, look for the trend to continue higher.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains pretty good.  My open order for the January calls is close to being filled.  I'm leaving it out there but there's a strong chance that GE will simply trend sideways from here.  That's the feeling I get when I look at the daily chart.  The Bollinger bands are starting to get closer together and that's usually a sign of some type of decent move to come.  We'll see.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  The Fed raising interest rates isn't positive for gold.  However the news has been already telegraphed and perhaps there won't be much of a reaction in gold when the announcement is made.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Options expiration week and the Fed.  We should hit new intra-day highs at some point.  Short term overbought, staying that way and it has been a broken record all year long with that mantra.  It has to end at some point but I certainly don't know when that will be.  Keep looking to the call side.  Asia was higher and Europe lower with the exception of the FTSE.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, December 08, 2017

The jobs report came in a bit better than expected and the Dow rallied 117 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn up here but the action is really just sideways right now.  The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at new records but the intra-day highs haven't been beaten just yet.  It looks like they will be though.  Once again the decline that I was anticipating just didn't materialize regardless of the technical indicators.  That's been the case all year.  At least this time I didn't try to trade on it.  What can I say?  It has been an incredible rally and it just keeps on going.  I am keeping an eye on the RUT here though.  GE finished flat on the day and the volume was good.  I continue to leave in the open order for the January calls here.  Gold lost a couple of bucks on the futures but did come up off of the lows.  The US dollar finished a positive week with another gain.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The fundamentals don't favor gold right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market continues higher and there is nothing in the way for more gains to accrue.  The decline I was looking for was another bad idea.  The positive seasonality should take continue to take effect with more new all time highs before the end of the year.  We'll get the Fed next week but there shouldn't be any surprises and the market will simply shrug off another rise in short term rates.  We'll get retail sales as well.  It's also options expiration week.  My short term technical take on the S&P 500 here is that we are short term overbought again but not extremely so.  There's room for the indicators to move higher along with the index.  Medium term the index is very overbought without any even minor decline for the whole year.  This won't go on forever but trying to pick the top is a guessing game.  I'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY until the January option cycle begins.  I don't have any solid ideas there at the moment.  But looking at the long side seems to be the only way to go.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, December 07, 2017

The Dow got a bump higher today as the most watched index rose 70 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  This could move the summation index back up but also show sideways here as well.  Tomorrows price action to me is important.  It will determine the weekly close and whether we are turning negative here or not.  A positive day will negate my theory of lower prices coming.  A decline would solidify in my mind the idea that we are in for a pause in the rally.  I'm not sure what the numbers will be but the markets reaction to them is the key.  GE was up a nickel on the usual good volume lately.  GE needs to hang in here or the near term support will be broken.  Gold lost $17 on the futures as the US dollar was up again.  It hasn't been a huge rally in the dollar as of late but gold has certainly lost some of its luster.  The XAU and GDX were both flat and came up off of their lows.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned back down here and I don't know if it's a precursor of better price action to come.  All we can do at this point is wait to see what the market says tomorrow.  If it's a solid upside session, we'll probably go on to see new all time highs next week.  If not then my idea of lower prices for a change will have a chance.  That's my best take on things at the moment.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll check the employment report in the morning and finish out the trading week from there.   

Wednesday, December 06, 2017

Another mixed bag for the stock market as the Dow fell 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has turned around here but hasn't begun to drop yet in earnest.  The NASDAQ was higher today and the S&P 500 little changed.  I believe we're at an important juncture here.  Perhaps the jobs report on Friday will clarify things.  We have negative divergences along with the same overbought conditions that we've seen all year.  Even though the month of December is considered a pretty positive one, I think we are finally going to drop here.  I could be wrong.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Gold was basically flat on the day as the US dollar continued to move higher.  The XAU lost a point and GDX dropped 1/4 on better volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The RUT continues lower but it hasn't been the leader as usual lately.  The VIX dropped as well and actually could be turning back down here.  So perhaps my idea of an actual decline here is off.  I would expect tomorrow to simply be a wait and see session ahead of Friday.  I haven't done a trade in the SPY for a while.  I really need to be mentally prepared to trade that particular vehicle.  With the office move still not completely settled, there is no rush to attempt anything here.  Success in the game requires your best effort and I don't think that I can give it that at the moment.  Trading GE is a different animal.  It is a slow mover and does not require as much attention.  Asia was lower and that was generally the case for Europe as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Tuesday, December 05, 2017

Today we had a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow.  The most watched index dropped 109 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 to the downside.  This might just turn the summation index lower.  The overall market was lower as well but not as much as the Dow.  However it does seem to me that the tone of the market is changing here.  Tomorrow could be interesting.  Perhaps this is finally the beginning of a sustained decline.  We'll find out soon enough.  If we get weak breadth tomorrow that will definitely turn the summation index around.  Stay tuned.  GE dropped almost 20 cents and the volume remains good.  The order for the January calls remains open here for me.  Gold dropped almost $10 today as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  It looks like another leg down for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK but still somewhat involved with the hassle of the office move.  We were and are still pretty high above the daily 50 day moving average for the S&P 500.  A return to that level would not be a surprise.  It comes in around 2575.  Also extended above the 50 week moving average on a weekly basis as well.  The potential negative RSI divergences on some of the major averages might finally come to fruition.  We'll know in due time.  But I do think that perhaps this time we will see some decline as it has happened in December before.  If GE breaks through 17.50/17.60 I may have to rethink that potential trade.  That appears to be the near term support.  This may not be the best idea in the world either.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in yesterdays trade.  We'll keep a close watch on tomorrow.  

Monday, December 04, 2017

Interesting start to the week as we opened much higher and sold off for the rest of the day.  The Dow did manage to hold on to a gain of 58 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ had one day reversals to the downside.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Will this be the beginning of some sort of actual downside?  Time will tell on that.  I have seen weakness in the beginning of December before though.  Not anything new on the news front today.  As I stated last week, once we get the tax reform approval, what else is there remaining to drive the market higher?  GE was up a few cents on heavy volume.  I've decided to stick with the GE January call trade for now.  Some more drop here will probably get the order filled.  Gold lost a few bucks today.  The US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU fell 7/8 and GDX shed about 1/3.  Volume was average.  Still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing better.  I'm still adjusting to the office move but the markets won't wait.  The VIX has come to life and volatility has returned for now.  There's still room for it to move higher from here.  The small stocks are showing relative weakness and that is not a plus for the bulls.  There are also some potential negative RSI divergences on the daily index charts.  So we can make a case that this time we will see some downside.  On the plus side there's still no overhead resistance and no positive trend lines have been violated.  So we'll see where we go from here.  We'll get the employment report on Friday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the trading action tonight.  

Friday, December 01, 2017

Today we got a version of Wall streets wild ride as the Dow plummeted over 300 points this morning on an indictment of a former Trump staffer.  However the market eventually shrugged it off and finished the first trading day of December with a loss of 40 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Volatility has returned to the market place.  It seems as though all bad news is discounted in a matter of hours and money simply pours into stocks.  Overbought, staying that way and there is no overhead resistance.  That is a recipe for higher prices going forward.  I don't know how long this thing can go on but there seems to be no end in sight.  Declines remain being bought.  Shorts continue to get squeezed.  Sit back and enjoy the ride I suppose.  But I still say that eventually this will end badly.  GE lost 3/8 on heavy volume.  Here's a stock that just can't get out of its own way.  Talk about not participating in the rally.  I'm really beginning to wonder if the January calls are even worth doing.  Gold was up $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had small gains but they fell off of their highs.  There's still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm about exhausted from the moving of the office.  It is affecting how I think at the moment so all trades are off with the exception of the open order for the GE January calls.  But the reality of the situation is that the market doesn't care about how I feel.  The game rolls on regardless of individual circumstances.  The key is recognizing when you are not 100% and scaling back when that occurs.  We're on a bull run.  Today could have done some damage if the market kept dropping but it turned around and came back.  As long as that happens we're going to go higher.  We haven't gotten to the point where everybody and their brother are talking about stocks.  When your Uber driver starts telling you what stocks to buy, then the market will be in trouble.  Keep that in mind going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  I'll try and check the charts this weekend but it could be just a time to take a break for me.  It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.