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Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Another breather for the stock market as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The tax bill has made it through Congress and awaits the presidents signature.  But like I've already said, what's left to drive prices higher after this?  Overdue, really for some type of pullback.  The technical condition remains the same, very overbought.  It's been this way for weeks on end and it has to end at some point.  There's still no overhead resistance so perhaps the Santa Claus rally will take effect as usual.  GE fell 1/8 on heavy volume.  Possibly starting another leg down here as we've broken through the near term support.  I've still got my open order in for the January calls here but adjusted down the price I'll pay today.  So I've lowered the strike price and the amount I'll pay in the past couple of sessions.  Maybe I should simply forget about this and move on to something else.  Gold was up almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar slipped just a bit.  The XAU gained almost 1 1/2 while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was higher than yesterday.  We've seen the gold shares rise this week so far despite an uptick in short term rates.  Interesting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a couple trading days remain before we switch into holiday mode.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  As much as I'd like to see a decline, the trend is up and has been for quite some time.  You can't fight that but we are extremely over extended.  The short term sell signals here haven't worked for a while and every small decline has been bought.  Until we see this change, I'll be on the sidelines with respect to the S&P.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

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