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Friday, December 08, 2017

The jobs report came in a bit better than expected and the Dow rallied 117 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn up here but the action is really just sideways right now.  The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at new records but the intra-day highs haven't been beaten just yet.  It looks like they will be though.  Once again the decline that I was anticipating just didn't materialize regardless of the technical indicators.  That's been the case all year.  At least this time I didn't try to trade on it.  What can I say?  It has been an incredible rally and it just keeps on going.  I am keeping an eye on the RUT here though.  GE finished flat on the day and the volume was good.  I continue to leave in the open order for the January calls here.  Gold lost a couple of bucks on the futures but did come up off of the lows.  The US dollar finished a positive week with another gain.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The fundamentals don't favor gold right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market continues higher and there is nothing in the way for more gains to accrue.  The decline I was looking for was another bad idea.  The positive seasonality should take continue to take effect with more new all time highs before the end of the year.  We'll get the Fed next week but there shouldn't be any surprises and the market will simply shrug off another rise in short term rates.  We'll get retail sales as well.  It's also options expiration week.  My short term technical take on the S&P 500 here is that we are short term overbought again but not extremely so.  There's room for the indicators to move higher along with the index.  Medium term the index is very overbought without any even minor decline for the whole year.  This won't go on forever but trying to pick the top is a guessing game.  I'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY until the January option cycle begins.  I don't have any solid ideas there at the moment.  But looking at the long side seems to be the only way to go.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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