Anotyer day, another gain as stock indexes continue to rise. The Dow gained 317 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The inflation data came in much lighter than expected. We had a gap higher at the open and never looked back. The NASDAQ is still leading this bull run. As long as that is the case the rally should move forward. Indices are as overbought as they can get or so it seems. When the technical indicators don't work anymore it is time to step aside. The S&P 500 posted another decent gain. The short term indicators are stuck in overbought territory. It is knocking on the door of reaching a new all time high. Stocks markets have been moving straight up for two weeks. I don't know how much longer that can continue. Gold was up almost a hundred bucks today on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 6 1/3, while GDX added 2 points. Volume remains light here. GDX like the overall market is short term overbought and staying that way. I dumped the GDX April puts that I had for a 90% loss. This trade was mismanaged by me about as bad as it gets. It did show a small profit early on but quickly moved the other way. I did not have a stop loss order on it which was another mistake. When the gold shares were acting better than gold itself I still held on to the losing position despite the signs that it was time to hit the exit. The trade should have been closed yesterday when gold came back from its early sell off overnight. There were plenty of chances to get out with a smaller loss but I didn't take them. The only minor saving grace is that I was initially going to take a bigger position and chose a smaller one. Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted. The VIX is still heading lower and remains short term oversold. Sometimes it can stay oversold for weeks and this looks like it could be one of those times. Three days left in the April option cycle and if my brain still works I'll be sitting on the sidelines. As much as I think the puts will work at some point this week, the technical signals that we are getting just are not working right now. We should have seen at least some kind of decent sell off by now if only for a day. But as always the market goes where it wants and knows much more than me. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Stocks start the week off on a positive note as the Dow gained 301 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Even the geo-political news about the war in Iran didn't phase things. However the market is extremely overbought on both a short and midium term basis at this point. It cannot stay that way forever. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a solid gain and at this rate will be reaching new all time highs before the end of the month. The short term indicators for the S&P continue to remain overbought. Do we consider a short term trade with the SPY April puts? I'll think about it overnight. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures but came up from the lows on the session. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU dipped 2 1/8, while GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. My GDX April put trade is on life support. Unless we see some kind of decent decline in the gold shares tomorrow this trade will be a loser. The short term up trend line for GDX was broken today. But it is probably too late to save this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX opened above the 20 level today but reversed and closed backdown to be lower on the day. Its short term indicators remain oversold. The VIX can remain oversold for some time during rallies like the one we find ourselves in right now. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and the Iran conflict remains center stage. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Just hanging around today for the most part although the Dow did drop 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. It was a mixed bag with the NASDAQ posting a gain and the S&P 500 having a small loss. The inflation data came in high but a touch less than expected. But the market is still being held hostage by the war in Iran. Whatever happens with the peace talks over the weekend will determine how we open on Monday. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on the daily indicators. It is overdue now for some kind of drop but in rallies it stays overbought as it has this week. We have option expiration week on tap as well. The SPY April options remain pricey with only a week to go. Gold was off $34 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU was up about 5 1/2 and GDX rose 7/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are still overbought. Gold down and the gold shares up is bullish for the gold shares. My GDX April puts are now showing a modest loss. I'm stuck holding them for now over the weekend. This trade has now turned into a cut the loss proposition depending on the open Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Despite being oversold this indicator implies higher stock prices yet to come. Still below thw 20 level which is bullish for stocks going forward. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. However the news from the peace talks will be center stage as far as where things go from here are concerned. It's anybodies guess what comes out of that. Asia was higher and Europe little changed to finish off the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 276 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in where expected. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent gain. Some of the short term indicators there are now overbought. The short term sell signal that we received from one of our indicators isn't working. That tells us something as well. The market is acting strongly here and any selling that we do see should be short lived. It appears that now declines can be bought. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX ended the session little changed on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought on some of its indicators. The GDX April puts that I purchased yesterday are now back at break-even. We'll see if gold reacts to tomorrows inflation data and take it from there. Not sure that I want to hold this position over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX continued lower today and closed below 20. Its short term indicators are now oversold. They can stay that way during rallies like the one we are in right now. It appears that the technical signs are pointing towards higher prices going forward. However we are still at the mercy of the next headline from the war in Iran. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A cease-fire in the Iran conflict probpted a huge rally today as the Dow soared 1325 on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. There was a huge gap to the upside for most stock indices at the open and the gains were held all session long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are almost overbought. We are getting a sell signal from one of our indicators that we rely on. Perhaps that will come to fruition before the weekend. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Inflation data coming out for the next two sessions. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $70 on the futures but fell from the best levels of the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 2/3, while GDX climbed over 3 1/8. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still tracking sideways with some in overbought territory. I canceled my open order for the GDX April puts overnight as markets were going wild to the upside and I didn't know where the GDX options would open. There was huge gap higher in the gold shares at the open. I placed another order for the GDX puts in the morning and it did get filled. It is showing a slight gain. The idea is to sell them before the weekend after we see the inflation data. The short term technical overbought condition on GDX hopefully works in our favor. But markets can stay overbought for a while sometimes. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap lower today which fits with what we saw in stocks. The short term indicators here are heading lower. The VIX broke and closed below its longer term up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. This implies that stocks will be in rally mode. It is still above the 20 level though. I'm in the next trade now and the management of it will be the key to the outcome. The markets still have above average risk right now so holding on to this position for an extended period of time may not be the best idea. Seven days to go in the April option cycle. Asia and Europe had huge gains overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting around to see what's next out of Iran as the Dow fell 85 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending higher. We traded lower today until the last hour when a rally moved many stocks back to the plus side. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted slight gains. Most of the short term indicators for the S&P are still trending up. Not sure what tomorrow will bring as we are still at the mercy of headline risk. Staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $41 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat to lower. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added almost a point. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are moving sideways with some of them overbought. My open order for the GDX April puts remains out there. Could get filled if we see the gold shares move higher tomorrow. I still like the idea of this trade ahead of the inflation reports. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are turning back up. If they succeed the market will head lower. However the markets are simply waiting to see if the United States starts bombing Iran tonight. That is what the near term trade boils down to. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade overseas. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A positive start to the new week as the Dow rose 165 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trending higher. The trading day had a distinct sideways feel to it as the market waits for the next headline from the war in Iran. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are still heading up. Not sure what comes next here. Inflation data due on Thursday and Friday of this week. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates remains flat. It seems that most markets are in a wait and see approach for now. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX shed around 3/4. Volume was light which seems to be the theme for today. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. I did place an open order for the GDX April puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order will be filled ahead of the inflation data later this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with an up market. When price action and the VIX don't match usually the VIX gets it right. The short term indicators for the VIX continue to track sideways. Today was a slow moving, not well attended day for stocks. Waiting for the next sound bite out of Iran. Europe and Asia were mixed with some exchanges closed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Volatility remains the name of the game for now as the Dow fell 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is in the process of trying to turn around. There was a huge gap lower for stocks at the open only to be followed by a run back up to positive territory in the next hour. Pretty much sideways after that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had one day upside reversals. Advantage to the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving up but some are beginning to head sideways. Depending on what happens over the long weekend it's anyones guess how Monday turn out. I'm still staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold lost $111 on the futures. The US dollar was higehr and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dipped 2 1/3 and GDX lost 1 1/3 on average volume. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are still moving up while others have stalled mirroring the overall technical market action. The fact that gold itself took a big hit and the gold shares held up rather wall is a plus for the precious metal bulls. I'm still considering the GDX April puts as the next trade but will be looking at things over the weekend which may change my mind. It is a trickier than usual trading environment at the moment due to the increased volatility in most markets. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are trending down. The VIX closed below its short term up trend line. An extra day this weekend to go over the charts and try to figure where we go from here. The market remains in headline risk mode. There's still two weeks left in the April option cycle so we will try and get something done. Asia and Europe were both lower, with India and England bucking the trend. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

Follow through upside today as the Dow gained 224 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The NASDAQ led the way again and that is positive for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a nice gain although it did drop back from the highs on the session. The short term indicators here are moving up with room to go. It does fell like we've seen the worst and stocks can find some footing here. However president Trump is giving a speech about the Iran war tonight so anything goes after that. Stocks are still at the mercy of the next sound bite. As we have seen lately it can get things going in either direction. Gold was up $116 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 15 1/4, while GDX added 3 7/8. Volume was good to the upside again. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up. Not yet overbought here. We missed the gold share calls here. I am now looking at the GDX April puts as my next trade. Not in a hurry to put this trade on so I will probably let tomorrow go by and look at it next week. Unless we see another big day for the gold shares tomorrow. If GDX gets up to 100 I'll be attempting to purchase those April puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is right on its short term up trend line from the past month. The short term indicators here are still trying to move lower from the mid-range level. If the VIX can make it down through its short term up trend line it would be a plus for the bulls. However there is still the longer term up trend line to contend with at the 21 level. One thing at a time though. Only a day left in the shortened trading week and we still have the question of who will want to hold stocks over what is now going to be a long weekend? We'll see how markets react to the Trump speech and go from there. Asia and Europe climbed higher in last nights trade. I'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

A huge rally today as signs that the war with Iran is coming to a close. The Dow roared ahead by 1125 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but could stall and turn here at the zero line if this rise continues. We don't know what will happen next. Usually in extended declines or bear markets you get some kind of big rally out of nowhere and we saw that today. The key will be if we see some follow through to the upside or not. Things could just as easily head back down tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way as it gained almost 4% and that's a plus. The S&P 500 was up 184 points in a day. The short term indicators there are now moving up. It certainly has the feel that the decline is over. We'll see. Gold was up 157 points on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 24 3/4 and GDX climbed 5 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher now as well. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as that ship has sailed. My thinking now is to wait for a short term overbought condition and try the GDX puts again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and most of its short term indicators are moving down. The longer term up trend line for the VIX comes in at 21. What happens there will tell us whether the decline has ended or not. We are still over four points away from there though so there is room for the VIX to drop and stocks to rise. An interesting day on the street to be sure. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Asia lower and Europe higher again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag to begin a short trading week with the Dow higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index rose 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ is still the weakest of the bunch and that's a negative. A late, last half hour rise kept things from being worse. The S&P 500 had a modest loss. The short term indicators here are stuck in oversold territory. You could begin to make a case for some kind of oversold bounce to occur but just as easily say things will fall apart with the summation index crossing the zero line. Our question remains who will want to own stocks at the end of this week heading into a long weekend? No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU dipped 3 3/4, while GDX was flat. Volume was about average. The short term indicators on GDX are starting to move sideways. I did place an order overnight for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. No hurry to get filled on this idea for a trade but if things collapse I would like to have an order out there to possibly get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today and its short term indicators are beginning to stall. Still not completely overbought here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Not a lot of economic data due this week. Februarys retail sales on Wednesday and the jobs report will come out when the markets are closed on Friday. We are still being held hostage to whatever happens with the war in Iran. Europe higher and Asia lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Still heading down as the Dow fell 793 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It is heading for the now inevitable crossing of the zero line to the downside. Stocks will continue to drop, we just don't know how far. Unless the Iran war ends all of a sudden but we are not counting on that. The NASDAQ is still leading the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 dropped over 100 points again. The short term indicators here are oversold and staying that way. The next area of support for the S&P comes in around 6100. However we are not going to try and predict the bottom at this time. Option premiums remain high. Gold was up $134 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 12 1/4, while GDX added 3 1/2. Volume was good. Today was the first time in a while that we saw the gold shares higher when the overall market was lower. Take note. It appears that the decline in gold is over. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move up. We will be looking for any near term pullback in GDX to try and purchase the April calls. This looks to be the next trade. The fact that gold itself recovered what it lost yesterday is a plus for the precious metal bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is now above 30. It usually doesn't stay that high for long but with the current technical condition of the market, who knows? The short term indicators here are into overbought territory. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as we try and come up with the best trading scenario moving forward. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Also a short trading week on tap as exchanges will be closed on Friday the 3rd. Asia was mixed and Europe down to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stocks headed back down today as the Dow fell 469 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to heading lower. The fact that it is close to the zero line must be taken into account. Things will get ugly if we don't see a turnaround. The NASDAQ led the way lower again, this time dropping over 500 points. The S&P 500 lost over a hundred. The short term indicators on the S&P turned back down in oversold territory. It closed at a new low for the year. The bears are in charge. Tomorrow should be interesting. Who will want to own stocks ahead of the weekend? Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $191. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU dipped 12 1/2 and GDX lost 3 3/4. This time volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX turned lower in oversold territory following the overall market. What we would like to see is the gold shares falling to a new low for the chance to try the GDX April calls. Markets rarely cooperate however. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. No telling where the VIX is going next. But if we see the summation index plow through the zero line, the VIX will be headed higher. As I stated earlier we have to be aware of this possibility due to the current location of the summation index. It is usually nowhere near the zero line. When it goes through that line things fall apart. Things need to turnaround in a hurry to avoid this. Anything is possible when markets are held hostage to the next sound bite. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving higher today as the Dow was up 305 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. Once again the NASDAQ was the leader. The S&P 500 had another modest gain. It has fallen back from its best levels on the day for three days in a row now. The short term indicators are moving up but slowly. I'm not sure if the S&P is going to turn higher from here or it is just stalling before a collapse. The zero line on the summation index is within striking distance. So what happens now in the next few days will be the key to where we are going. The market is still at the mercy of the next headline. Gold was up $114 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 8 3/4, while GDX was up 2 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up but are still on the oversold side of the ledger. Looks too late for the GDX calls now as we will have to change strategy. We'll now look for the GDX April puts when it gets short term overbought. We will be looking for a retest of the recent lows. All subject to change though as we wait for the gold market to provide some clues. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators here have now drifted back lower. No conviction either way on the indicators. The longer term up trend line that began in January for the VIX is still in effect. Simply waiting on what's next for the markets as the week goes by. Looking for the next signal to trade. Options premiums remain high. Patience for now. Asia and Europe were higher as hopes for an end to the Iran conflict gains steam. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Bouncing around today as we opened with a gap lower and traded sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 had a small loss. The short term indicators there are still oversold and now heading sideways. We remain at the mercy of the next Iran headline. We'll stick to the sidelines for now. Gold was off four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was average. Still short term oversold for GDX. We are looking at the GDX April calls as the next trade but will wait on that for now. There is still a chance that stocks move lower from here and they would take the gold shares with them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are trying to move up. If they do we'll see lower prices. We are in a tricky trading environment due to the overall geo-political background which includes war. Option premiums remain high because of volatility and the beginning of the next option cycle. So I will try and remain patient for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night with the exception of the DAX. I'll be keeping an eye on things overnight.

Volatility works both ways as the Dow gained 631 points on pretty heavy volume. It was up over a thousand early on. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Headline risk remains the theme as whatever happens in Iran takes center stage. Tough trading envirionment to be sure. Both the Dow and NASDAQ led the way higher. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn up from oversold territory. So there is a chance that stocks turn around and the summation index doesn't make it through the zero line. But there's a chance that is does too as we are getting closer to it every day. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Premiums are high along with uncertainty. Gold lost $161 on the futures. It did finish well up from the lows on the session. The daily candlestick chart here looks like appears to show that a low has been put in. We'll see. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 1/2, while GDX was up 3 1/8. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move higher from deeply oversold. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive sign. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it wasn't close to being able to be filled. I still like this idea and am going to try to put it on at some point in the April option cycle. The short term technicals for gold itself remain extremely oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit lower after being all over the place today. The short term indicators here are beginning to trend sideways. Not exactly sure what to expect here next for the VIX. The market remains hostage to the next revelation on Iran. There is nothing wrong with waiting things out as having no position is still a position. We do like trying the gold share calls at some point in the near future. Asia down and Europe up to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another day of liquidation as the Dow fell 443 points on extremely heavy expiration volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within two days and today satisfies that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500, which lost 100 points today, is short term oversold and staying there which is never a good sign. The 200 day average did not hold. The next area of support is far away at 6100. As the summation index heads towards the zero line it is possible that things fall apart and the S&P makes it down to that level. But it is not a certainty. Options premiums are already high as we roll into the April option cycle. The puts are still looking like the way to go with regards to the SPY. Gold was off $103. The dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 13 points, while GDX lost 2 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Support at 82 didn't hold so the next level that we are looking at is 75. I did place an open order for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. GDX is getting so blown out to the downside it looks like an opportunity for a short term trade. But that doesn't mean that it can't just simply continue lower. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back up today and its short term indicators have turned higher. If the VIX keeps moving up stocks will keep moving down. The market is in an interesting place at the moment. Opportunity is out there but the risks are high. I'll be checking all the charts this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Volatility remains the theme as the Dow fell 203 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. We had a gap down at the open but at least today there was some buying as the market finished up from the lows. Once again the Dow led things lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain oversold. It is trying to hang on to its 200 day mvoing average here but closed just below it. Option expiration Friday tomorrow so things could get a little crazy. Gold got sold hard again today as the futures lost $255. It did come up from the lows though. Interest rates finished mixed but came down from their highs of the session. The US dollar was lower. The XAU dropped 21 1/8, while GDX lost 5 1/8. They both came back from lower levels early on. Volume was very heavy as players head for the exits. GDX is trying to hang in there at the 82 support level. Not sure that it will. The next support is around 75 at the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold with some of them completely blown out. That is one of the reasons I'm now looking at the GDX April calls as the potential next trade. Not that I think a sustained rally is at hand but because some kind of bounce should occur with the current oversold condition. I may place an open order overnight. It is also true that gold and the gold shares may simply continue to drop here. There is risk in every idea and trade. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Sometimes the VIX precedes the next days price action so we'll see if stocks are higher tomorrow. The short term indicators here are still trending lower. It has been quite a week already. Expiration Friday should be interesting. Both Europe and Asia were down sharply. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Sellers returned as the Dow fell 768 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The inflation data came in hotter than expected. The Fed left rates alone which was expected. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the worst case scenario. The S&P 500 is now testing the low set on Friday and is just about at its 200 day moving average. So if things don't hold up here it could get ugly. The short term indicators on the S&P are oversold and staying there. Not sure what would bring buyers back with the exception of an end to the Iran conflict. But no one knows when that will be. Gold got clobbered with the futures down $163. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 23 3/4 and GDX lost 5 2/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX are oversold and staying that way. Even though we never got filled trying to buy the GDX March puts here the analysis was still correct. We will get other opportunities down the road. Once again, gold and the gold shares had a parabolic advance. That cannot not last forever. It always ends badly as the excesses have to be driven out. The precious metals complex is in that phase now. It will probably take a while. Rallies can be sold and puts can be purchased on advances. When the Iran war ends gold will most likely move up and that will be the chance to try the puts again. In theory at least. Support for GDX here comes in at the 82 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go higher now. Some of the short term indicators have turned up and have plenty of room to run. This could potentially spell big trouble for stocks as the summation index is heading towards the zero line. The index is still over 1000 points away but it can drop sharply at times. Things will unravel if the summation index makes it through that line. It doesn't happen very often but we have to be aware of the condition the market is in at the moment. Asia up and Europe down overnight. We'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

Today was a repeat of yesterday but on a smaller scale as we had a gap higher at the open only to be followed by sideways price action. The Dow gained 46 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's a plus. However we are still just bouncing up from oversold levels for now. With inflation data and the Fed tomorrow my guess would be that we head back down but the market can be full of surprises. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still on the oversold side of things. No SPY option trades for now. Gold was up a couple bucks. The US dollar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU was off 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold. The only way we'd take on a trade here is if there was some kind of bounce tomorrow in GDX for us to try the puts before Friday. I doubt that is going to happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is still above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are trying to move down. The longer term up trend line on the VIX comes in at 20. I'd certainly like to take on a trade here before Fridays option expiration but it doesn't look like it. With only three days left in the March option cycle the risk pretty much speaks for itself. Asia was mixed and Europe higher again. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The expected bounce showed up today as the Dow gained 387 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. We did get a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with in the next two sessions and today takes care of that. It could have been better though as stocks markets closed off of their highs for the session. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up but remain oversold. Now we have to figure out if today is the beginning of something sustained to the upside or just another oversold bounce. I certainly do not know for sure. You can still make a case for either way. With only four days left in the March option cycle, it appears that we'll remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options. Inflation data on Wednesday along with the Fed no doubt increases the risk. Plus the inevitable Iran war headlines make for a tougher than usual trading environment. Gold dropped forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 3 7/8 and GDX added a point. Volume was average. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is something that we haven't seen in a while. GDX is still short term oversold. I did want to own some GDX March puts ahead of the data and Fed on Wednesday but it looks like that trade isn't going to be worth the risk. Unless the war ends tonight and we see a big rise in gold and the gold shares tomorrow we'll have to remain on the sidelines here too. Perhaps a trading opportunity will present itself this week but it would have to be very short term in nature. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators that we follow on the VIX are still hanging around the mid-range level. Still above the 20 level here. The shorter term up trend line here has been broken. We are going to have to see how this week plays out going forward and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A one day downside reversal today as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 119 points today on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ is leading the way down and that's negative. We are expecting some kind of bounce here due to the fact that one of our indicators is in an extreme oversold spot. But like we said yesterday, who wants to own stocks going into the weekend? The S&P 500 posted a modest loss and its short term indicators are oversold. Approaching the 200 day moving average on the S&P daily chart at 6600. Perhaps we'll see a bounce there. Unless we see some type of a cease-fire for the war in Iran stocks will continue to be sold. One week left in the March option cycle. Taking on any trade next week will be fraught with risk. Gold dropped over 100 bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell almost 22 points, while GDX shed 5 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is now short term oversold. If we see some kind of bounce here next week, I may try the GDX March puts again for a very short term trade. My thinking is that gold is still unwinding the parabolic rise that it had and that takes time. However since the gold shares are short term oversold already, chasing the puts now is not the most solid plan. The longer term up trend line for GDX comes in at 85, with the 200 day moving average at 75. Not sure it will make it back to either of those levels here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only down slightly today and the short term indicators are starting to trend sideways despite todays decline for stocks. Not sure what's going on there. Some of the VIX indicators are mid-range which means it could go either way. Some of the weekly indicators for the S&P 500 are not yet oversold so I would expect some more downside in the days to come. However the McClellan oscillator readings are very negative right now and that's a condition that usually doesn't last that long. I'd be surprised if we didn't see some type of bounce on Monday or Tuesday of expiration week. I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend. Asia and Europe were lower as buyers have stepped away around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Heading down as the Dow fell 739 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Buyers were nowhere to be found today as we again had a gap lower at the open. This time the selling simply continued thoughout the day and we practially closed at the low for the session. The NASDAQ was the leader and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 lost over 100 points. The short term indicators here are moving down and are not yet oversold. Economic data out tomorrow including inflation numbers but it seems all that will take a back seat to whatever is happening with the war in Iran. Any positive news there will send stocks into a sharp rally but we don't know when that will occur. For now the war is a negative for the market and that fact makes you wonder who would want to hold stocks over the weekend? It now appears that the bounce on Monday or follow through on Tuesday was the opportunity to purchase some SPY puts. Gold was off $82 on the futures. The US dollar was up again along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 9 1/2 and GDX lost 2. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are drifting lower and are not yet completely oversold. I canceled my open order for the GDX March puts. I might move to a lower strike price but will have to see some upside first to take on this trade. I also do not want to hold anything over the weekend due to the volatility and headline risk. I still like this idea at some point ahead of the Fed but will most likely now wait until next week to attempt it. However you do not want to own any puts at the hint of a cease-fire in Iran. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are beginning to turn back up. There is now a short term up trend line in place on the VIX daily chart. Volatility is the rule for now. We are getting very close to a bounce point on one of the indicators we follow on the overall market and I suspect that we will see this happen relatively soon. Not sure that it will last though. It is another reason to be very careful trying the puts here. Europe and Asia were lower as players continue to head for the exits. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Pretty much a sideways affair today except for the Dow which lost 289 points. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain. The inflation data came in where expected. The S&P 500 had a small loss. Its short term indicators continue to hover in the mid-range area. More inflation data on Friday. Technically we still could go either way from here. Plus we remain hostage to the headlines from the war in Iran. We'll stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options until we get a decent signal. Gold was down $53. Both the US dollar and interest rates finished higher. The XAU lost 9 points and GDX fell a couple of points. Volume was slightly below average. The short term indicators for GDX are now trending sideways on the oversold side of the ledger. My order for the GDX March puts remains out there. However as the days go by the appeal of making a trade diminishes because the risk increases. That said I do still like this idea ahead of the Fed. We'll see. mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly down today. The short term indicators here are trending lower. The VIX does remain above 20 though, so volatlity is still in the picture. Not sure what to expect for the markets on Thursday as it could be a waiting game on Fridays data. Not sure what kind of surprise we can get out of Iran at this point but you never know. Asia was mixed and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

Back and forth today but when it was all said and done the Dow lost 34 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues lower. We did have a nice gain at some point during the day but could not hold on. The NASDAQ is the relative outperformer right now and that is a step in the right direction for the bulls. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Inflation data on tap and of course the next headline out of the Iran war. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are hanging around mid-range. Anything could happen as this point which isn't the best trading background for us. We'll stay on the sodelines with regards to the SPY options until we see fit. Gold was up a hundrde bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU rose 6 1/3 and GDX was up 1 1/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to bounce from oversold. My open order for the GDX March puts remains out there. The risk for this trade increases with each passing day as time begins to run out for the March option cycle. I still like the idea though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Its short term indicators are beginning to stall. Still above the 20 level and as long as that is the case volatility will remain. Not sure what's next here. I still think it's wise to keep positions small and time frames shorter than usual in this type of trading environment. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Another wild day on Wall street as steep losses turned back into gains by the close. The Dow rose 239 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving down. Another huge gap lower to begin the day but the rest of the session was a recovery sparked in the final hour on word that the war with Iran could soon be over. There were one day upside reversals all around and a negative reversal for oil. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that is a positive. The S&P had a decent gain and finished well off of the lows on the session. Is this the big upside day out of nowhere that we were looking for in order to try the SPY March puts? That is the question and I don't really have an answer. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have now turned up. I'm on the side of caution for now with regards to trading the SPY options because the trading environment at the moment is so volatile. The drop with todays low has only been 5% off of the all time high for the S&P. However it seems like it has been more than that. Gold was off a dozen on the futures and came up well from its lows. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained around 4 1/2, while GDX added a point or so. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares also saw one day upside reversals. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn around. The up trend line from last November on the GDX daily chart has still contained the recent decline That said, my open order for the GDX March puts remains out there. The plan is to purchase them at some point ahead of the Fed next week and wait for that meeting. A light volume rise from here would be ideal. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX zoomed up to 35 this morning only to fall all the way back to 25 by the days close. It appears to have put in a top. Some of the short term indicators have turned back down. The VIX is pointing to the probability that the decline in stocks is over. We'll see. Asia had steep losses and Europe was lower to begin the trading week. We'll see what tonights headlines have to say.

Lower today to end the week as the Dow fell 453 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The jobs report was much weaker than expected and oil prices surged. That led to another huge gap lower at the open and the market tried to recover but could not. Once again the NASDAQ led things south. The S&P 500 had a steep loss and finally closed below the support of 6800. The trend now is down. The short term indicators here have turned lower with room to go before hitting oversold. Lower prices are now expected. Perhaps we'll see a big one day rally in order to try the SPY puts but that isn't the best trading strategy. Gold was up $83 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 2 1/4 and GDX shed 1/3. Volume was a bit above average. Gold up and the gold shares down is still the near term picture. The gold shares are following the overall market. GDX closed right on the up trend line that began in November as the 50 day moving average holds for now. I did leave my open order for the GDX March puts out there but will reconsider this idea over the weekend. I'm beginning to hear more talk now of gold falling in the media and we usually like to be contrary to what is being widely reported. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped today and closed at 29 and change. The short term indicators here took off as well and some are now in overbought territory. In my view the decline that we've seen so far has been pretty orderly. The would change if the VIX continues to spike. There will be much work to do with the charts over the next two days to find a path forward. Not to mention being at the risk of the next major headline. I'll do what I can to try and figure things out. Asia was higher with the exception of India and Europe lower to finish out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling resumed today as the Dow fell 784 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow by far led the way lower today and that's not the worst scenario. The S&P 500 once again traded below the 6800 level only to make it back and close above it. The short term indicators for the S&P are hanging around the mid-range level. It appears as though the S&P wants to put in some kind of a bottom here as it keeps coming back to close above 6800. But it is a volatile, event driven environment we find ourselves in. Things still could go either way for the S&P. We don't have any plans for the SPY March options right now but that could change. Premiums remain high but there is plenty of time left in the March option cycle. Gold dropped $45 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 17 3/4, while GDX lost 4 1/8. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX are back to pointing down and are not yet oversold. GDX did manage to come back and close above the up trend line at 101. It also bounced off of its 50 day moving average. Regardless, we are still bearish on gold and the gold shares here. Hoping for some kind of light volume levitation in the coming days to purchase the GDX March puts again. My open order for them remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving back up. Still above the 20 level which says volatility will remain. The jobs report is out tomorrow and unless it has some big surprise I doubt it will make much difference given the current market conditions. Tougher than usual trading but there are opportunities for those that can find them. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the volatile week tomorrow.

Buyers showed up today as the Dow gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to stall again. The NASDAQ led the way and that's positive. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and the short term indicators here have turned up. But we are still in an event driven environment so things change in a hurry. That goes for both directions. Yesterdays climb to back above the 6800 level is encouraging for the bulls though. With the technical indicators still hovering around mid-range we don't have any clear signal here yet. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU was up 2 points and GDX added 1/2. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators here are beginning to move sideways at around the mid-range level. I have placed another open order for the GDX March puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally we'd like to see another light volume move higher in order to buy the puts. Markets rarely cooperate. There is an up trend line for GDX that began last November and remains intact. It comes in at the 101 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators on the VIX have turned lower. It is possible that the rise in the VIX is over as it reached 28 this week. But in a news driven market like the one we're in now, anything goes. Combine that with a lack of a good technical signal and you can see what we're up against. Asian markets had steep losses led by Korea. Europe was higher. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

It was another volatile day on Wall street as we again saw a huge gap lower at the open with the market spending the rest of the day trying to recover. The Dow fell 403 points after being down well over a thousand early on. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Volume was pretty heavy again. The summation index is trying to turn lower. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader to the downside and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 traded well below support at 6800 during the day but came back to close above it. The short term indicators here have turned lower with room to go. 6800 somehow held today but I'm not sure that it will for the rest of the week. Headline risk is high as we are at the mercy of the next wartime event. Gold got clobbered as the futures fell over two hundred points. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates but they did drop back from the highs of the day. The XAU fell almost 38 points and GDX lost around 10. Volume was extremely heavy to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX have turned down with room to go. I bailed out of the GDX March put trade but I do still like this idea going forward. My timing getting in was early and the exit today certainly could have been better. GDX can certainly continue to fall from here but the volatility risk right now is pretty high. If we see another rise in the gold shares near term, I'll try the GDX puts again. The gain on the trade was 110%. However with a premature entry followed by a lackluster exit it leaves much to be desired. Hopefully the trading tactics will improve with the next effort. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today but fell from its highs. Still above the 20 level and we are seeing the volatility that comes with that. The short term indicators here are moving higher and are not yet overbought. So things should remain interesting for the near term. We've got the jobs report due on Friday but will it even matter with the events going on right now in the world? In times like this it is probably best to keep positions small and take profits when you have them. Still plenty of time remaining in the March option cycle. Asia and Europe were down as players head for the exits. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We had a dramatic one day upside reversal for some of the major indices but the Dow fell 73 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. War in Iran broke out over the weekend and that helps to explain the various price action that we were seeing on Friday. Stocks opened with a huge gap lower to begin the day but fought there way back for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 bounced off of the 6800 level which remains in place for now at the bottom of the two month sideways consolidation we find ourselves in. The short term indicators here are at mid-range so things could go either way here. The NASDAQ led things back and that's a plus for the bulls. However we are in a place right now that is dominated by geo-political tensions and outright aggression. The trading is never easy. Gold rallied $105 on the futures in the flight to safety. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU slipped 1 1/8, while GDX was off 1/2 on above average volume. The gold shares came back from the worst levels on the day. However with gold itself up and the gold shares down it does raise some more questions about what is going on here. I've still got the GDX March puts at a loss for now. GDX is still short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did come back from its best levels. Above the 20 level and that usually means more volatility to come. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving up from the mid-range level. Should be an interesting week. How long I hold on to the GDX put trade is the main question for me at the moment. Asia and Europe were lower as fear and uncertainty rule for now. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More selling today but it could have been worse as the Dow fell 521 points on pretty heavy end of the month volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow led things lower today. The inflation data came in a bit higher than expected. A final hour rally kept things from being worse. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to flatten out at the mid-range level. The S&P remains stuck in a trading range. Not sure what's next here as you could make a case either way. Gold was up $86 on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. That doesn't really fit with a higher than expected inflation number but the market always knows more than we do. The XAU gained over 7 1/2, while GDX was up 1 7/8. Both hit new all time highs. Volume was still on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought and staying there which occurs during rallies like the one we are seeing now. My GDX March puts are solid losers and I should have just dumped them and taken the loss today. My position is now far out of the money. The only thing is has going for it is plenty of time left until option expiration. But I should be in cut the loss mode. However I never trust light volume rallies and that is what GDX is in. But markets can go on longer than you can stay liquid. Mentally is a little bit of a downer. This GDX put trade was one that perhaps I should not have taken. The gold shares were continuing higher even when gold was just hanging around. The signs were there that the rally could possibly continue and it has. Now I'm holding a losing position over the weekend which clouds my mental view for the next possible trade. The VIX was higher today but closed below 20 and off of the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trying to move higher. Not sure what's coming next for this indicator. Europe was lower and Asia higher with the exception of India to close the week. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A mixed picture today as the Dow managed a gain of 17 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had losses, with the NASDAQ down over 1%. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have now turned lower but it did come up off of the worst levels on the day. End of the month tomorrow and inflation data due. The NASDAQ continues to lag and that is usually not a good sign. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU climbed 12 1/4 and GDX was up 2 1/2 to a new all time high. Volume was just below average. The gold shares are leading gold and that is a positive. It appears that my idea for the GDX March puts is not going to work out. GDX is short term overbought and in the midst of a light volume rally. My timing seems to be early here and unless we see some decline in GDX tomorrow this trade will be a loser. It is now posting a modest loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from the highest levels on the session. The up trend line from January remains in place. The short term indicators for the VIX now look mixed. Asia was lower except for Japan and Europe finished the day up. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows data and take it from there.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 307 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led things higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a gap up at the start and continued higher throughout the session. The short term indicators here are pointing up with room to go. The S&P looks like it will hit new all times highs again. However every time we have been in this situation for the past two months, the S&P cannot get through the 7000 level. Will it be different this time around? Stay tuned. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU rose 1 1/8 and GDX added over 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators here are heading sideways with some overbought. GDX finished off of the highs for the day. My open order for the GDX March calls got filled halfway through the session. It is showing a small gain. The idea is to hold this trade until Fridays inflation report or longer depending on the price action. We've have had a light volume return to the recent all time high for GDX. My expectation here is for some kind of pullback based on the technicals. Markets do go where they want however. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped which fits an up market. It is now right on the up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. A break through that line would be positive for stocks and imply that new all time highs are coming. The short term indicators for the VIX are pointing down with room to go. Tomorrow could be a waiting game as the end of the month occurs on Friday. Asia and Europe were up overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Bouncing back today as the Dow was up 370 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. We had an early rally and then traded sideways for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P are back to pointing higher at the mid-range level. So things could still go either way here. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was off forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher as were interest rates. The XAU was up 6 points and GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares continue with better relative performance than the price of gold and that is a plus. I'm still in the camp that favors lower gold prices though and I am leaving my open order for the GDX March puts out there. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall and some have made it to overbought territory. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are hanging around the mid-range level. The up trend line that began at the beginning of the year remains in place for the VIX. Not sure what's coming next here. Stocks have been trading sideways since the end of last year. Still waiting to see who wins this battle. For the S&P 500 it's 7000 at the top and 6800 on the bottom. Might have to jump on board once we see a breakout. Asia was mixed and Europe little changed in last nights trade. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Was today a delayed reaction to the tariff ruling? Perhaps, as the Dow lost 821 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Dow was the leader heading south and that's not the worst scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 dropped over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned down. 6800 seems to be the line in the sand for the S&P. A close below there could lead to more selling. Gold was up $168 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell. The XAU was up 11 2/3, while GDX gained over 3 3/4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving higher. Could I be wrong about golds rally being over? Maybe. The gold shares are outperforming gold itself at the moment and that is a positive. GDX is almost back to a new all time high. I did however place an overnight order for the GDX March puts and I'm leaving it out there. If GDX blasts off to a new all time high I'll have to change my thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is back over the 20 level. The short term indicators here have moved back up. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. Option premiums are high as we have just moved into the March option cycle. Waiting for a decent signal to trade the SPY options. Inflation data on Friday that I do think will be higher than expected. Asian markets have been returning from holiday. Europe was down and Asia generally higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow gained 230 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. GDX was less than expected and the inflation data came in higher than anticipated. Trumps tariffs were also deemed illegal by the Supreme court. So there was a lot of news to sift through. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and its short term indicators are now moving up. It has me thinking that new all time highs could be back in play perhaps next week. Rolling into the March option cycle now so premiums will be high. Gold was up $110 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates finished basically flat again. The XAU was up 9 points and GDX rose 1 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators continue higher for GDX. They are not completely overbought but I am looking at the March puts there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are moving down. There is an up trend line for the VIX that comes in at around 17.5. We'll see what happens if it gets back to there. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 267 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to trend higher. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. The S&P 500 had a small drop today. The short term indicators for the S&P are now stalling just below the mid-range level. My guess is that it will be weak tomorrow for expiration Friday but I'm not making any trades based on that. Waiting for the next signal. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 6 1/3 and GDX rose 1 3/4. Volume remains light here for now. The short term indicators are now moving higher for GDX. I'm still a believer that gold itself has seen its high at around $5600 and won't be getting above that number anytime soon. I'm willing to try the GDX puts again on any short term overbought condition. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher and is back above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are hanging around the mid-range level. Still not sure where it goes from here. Asia was up with the exception of India and Europe was down. We'll get inflation data and GDP tomorrow. Expiration Friday on tap.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 129 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending higher. We opened higher, had a sell off in the middle of the day only to jump back up in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way and that is a positive. However I'm not sold on the two day rally continuing. My guess is that the short term buy signal that we got has run its course. I did try to purchase some SPY February calls again this morning but that idea has run its course. I canceled the order. I did take a look at the SPY February puts today but we don't really have a signal for that. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned up at the mid-range level for ones we are looking at. We are back to the sidelines here. Gold was up $99 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 9 3/4, while GDX added 2 1/3. Volume was lighter than average. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing up at the mid-range level. GDX is right up against its short term down trend line and if that line holds it would make a case for the GDX puts. But there are only two days left in the February option cycle and I'm not sure it is worth the risk. I'm pretty sure that it isn't. Patience in waiting for the next decent signal is what is required at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. Its short term indicators are pointing lower at the mid-range level. Not sure what's next here as the VIX has been in a steady climb since the beginning of the year. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.

The short expiration week starts off with some volatility, with a morning decent sell off followed by buying to get back to positive territory. The Dow rose 32 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were sightly positive. The summation index is still trending higher. Most of the major indices posted slight gains. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trending sideways. We now have a short term buy signal from one of our indicators but it isn't the strongest that we've seen. I did place an overnight order for the SPY February calls but it wasn't filled. I tried to jump in front of the signal and it almost worked. I might try this trade again tomorrow if we see some weakness in the S&P. However this is a short term trade with only three days to go in the February option cycle. Getting filled today would have been a better scenario. I can only make a case for staying in this trade for a day. Gold fell $144 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 13 1/8 and GDX lost 3 3/4. Volume was above average. The gold shares did come up off of the worst levels for the session. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing down at the mid-range level. No GDX option trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling at bit dissatisfied that my overnight order wasn't filled. The VIX was a bit lower today but remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators are still tracking sideways. Not sure where the VIX is heading. I will go over things tonight and decide if the SPY call trade is worth the risk. What was open in Asia finished mixed, while Europe ended the day higher. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Up and down today with not much ground gained or lost when it all was finished. The Dow rose 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Inflation data came in a touch lighter than expected. After a brief early dip, stocks spent the first half of the day moving higher and the second half moving lower. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 finished with the slightest of a gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. We are almost to the point of a short term buy signal on one of our indicators for the S&P but not there yet. It does imply that weakness can be bought on Tuesday but we will have to go over all the charts this weekend to get a better picture. Gold was up $103 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU gained 21 1/2 and GDX climbed 5 1/2. Volume was good heading back to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up at the mid-range level. In retrospect selling the GDX puts yesterday was the right decision. The question now is do we try this trade again with only 4 days left in the February option cycle? It's something to ponder over the next three days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today and is still above the 20 level. Its short term indicators are heading sideways. Not sure where it goes from here. A holiday weekend on tap for the US. Some markets will be closed next week for holidays in Asia. We may perhaps see some thin or skewed trading. I'll be going over things this weekend but any option trade next week would be of high risk with only four days to go before expiration. That said, there will be opportunities. Asia was lower and Europe mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 669 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led that way lower and that continues to be a negative. The TRAN took a big drop today. The S&P 500 fell over 100 points. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower with plenty of room to go. It appears that my idea of the S&P hitting a new all time high before option expiration was wrong. But we'll have to wait and see what happens tomorrow with the reaction to the inflation data. Gold got clobbered today as the futures lost $157. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell over 30 points and GDX lost 7 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back lower with room to go. GDX also closed on the low of the day. I decided not to wait until tomorrow and sold the GDX February puts during the trading session. Probably the wrong decision as they increased in value towards the end of the session. The entry on this trade was OK but could have been better. I'm probably a day early on the exit. It was only one session but the negative price action in gold and the gold shares reiterates my belief that we've seen the parabolic top for these segments. Not a great trade but the gain was 140% in a day. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I did not execute the GDX put trade that well. Five days to go in the February option cycle so it is possible that we'll try something else here. A long weekend is coming though and it might be better to sit things out until Tuesday. The VIX jumped as you would expect and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back up with conviction. This implies that we could see more selling early tomorrow morning We'll see. It will probably all depend on the CPI report. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Volatility returned early on today and the Dow fell 66 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ had a slight loss and the S&P 500 was unchanged. The employment report came in better than expected and that got things moving up and down. There was a gap higher at the open which immediately turned around into a modest loss. The rest of the day was spent in a sideways drift. The short term indicators for the S&P have begun to stall. Next up will be the inflation report on Friday to contend with. I still think that the S&P will be hitting a new all time high soon. Gold was up $81 on the futures. The US dollar finished slighly higher and interest rates were up. The XAU gained over 10 points, while GDX added 3. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up with room to go. My open order for the GDX February calls was filled. It is showing a modest loss. It now looks like this idea was past its time as the technical picture for GDX appears now to be positive. Perhaps it was one of those ideas that I fell in love with and didn't let go. I would like to give it until Friday before bailing out but we'll have to see how tomorrow goes first. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are moving sideways. Appears as though it could go either way here. The overall technical picture for the stock market is not as clear as I'd like it to be. Six days remain in the February option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Another mixed pictire today as the Dow rose 52 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The market was trending sideways before dropping late in the day. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest losses with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. Not exactly sure why the late exit from stocks but perhaps a bit of fear ahead of tomorrows jobs report. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are beginning to stall. I remain in the bullish camp here though and expect new all time highs for the S&P soon. I would change my mind if we see some kind of sharp downside price action tomorrow but I do not think that is in the cards. Gold was off $26 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU added 3 points and GDX was up an 1/8 or so. Volume was light. The gold shares did better than gold itself and we haven't seen that lately. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall at mid-range. I did place an order overnight for the GDX February puts again and I'm leaving it out there. Not sure it will get filled as there is a very wide spread in the strike price that I'm trying to buy. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today and that fits with todays overall price action. The short term indicators here didn't move much. It's all about the employment report tomorrow. I don't know what to expect from that but the market reaction will tell the story. Asia was up and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments ahead of tomorrows data.

We did see some upside follow through to Fridays huge gains but the Dow only managed a gain of 20 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ was by far the leader today and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 is poised to make a new all time high. The short term indicators there are now trending higher with room to go. Plenty of earnings and economic data due this week so there will be excuses for market movement. I'm in the bullish camp for now regarding the S&P. Gold was up $123 on the futures to close back above the $5000 level. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU gained almost 23 points and GDX was up 5 1/2. Volume was above average to the upside. Has the decline for gold and the gold shares ended already? That is the question we are dealing with. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher with room to go. I'm still considering the GDX February puts and will think about putting in a overnight order for them. But we also have to consider the possiblity that the sharp decline we saw a week ago may be it for the downside as the parabolic move higher stalled. As usual the trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here are trending lower and not yet oversold. The VIX seems to be supporting higher stock prices going forward for now. Asia and Europe were higher to begin the week as global funds return to stocks. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Stocks exploded to the upside today with the Dow closing above the 50000 level for the first time. The Dow gained 1207 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index has now turned back up but is still in a sideways configuration. Yesterday looked like the market was going to fall apart and today it seems there is no stopping it to the upside. Perhaps the idea of the SPY calls was simply a day too early. However we are always wary when rallies appear out of nowhere, especially in what was considered a weak market. The Dow was the best performer today but all the major indices had stellar gains. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We are going to have to look things over this weekend to decide where we're going next. Gold was up $87 on the futures. The US dollar was weaker and interest rates finished flat. The gold shares followed the overall market higher. The XAU gained 19 1/4, while GDX added 5 points. Volume was lighter than it has been. The short term indicators for GDX are still in oversold territory but they are trying to move up. I'm still considering trying the GDX February puts but this will also be something that needs a closer look over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank with the rise in stocks and is back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are moving down. It could be that the decline for stocks is over for now but we'll know more about that in the coming week. We'll get the late jobs report and some inflation data. There will be plenty of charts to check over this weekend as we try and figure out the next trade. Still two weeks to go in the February option cycle less one day for a holiday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish off the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers have taken control as the Dow fell 593 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move lower. Not sure what's going on here but we cannot argue with price. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative which it has been for a while. I was leaning towards the SPY calls but that thought was wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving down and it closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term up trend line here has now been broken. Things could get ugly before they get better. Gold dropped $118 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped in a flight to bonds. The gold shares got whacked. The XAU fell almost 25 points and GDX lost6 1/3. Volume remains heavy. It appears that the early week bounce for the gold shares is all that we are going to get, which makes it too late for the GDX February puts. Unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround higher tomorrow in the precious metals. Some of the gold stocks have already lost over 20%. Looks like just another missed opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above the 20 level. Volatility has returned. The short term indicators here are now moving up with conviction and are almost short term overbought. Lower stock prices seem to be the future going forward. Perhaps we'll look for a bounce out of nowhere to try the SPY puts but it is most likely too late for that. We never got a clear signal for direction but the action of the market recently was puzzling. We now know it was a precursor to lower prices. Tomorrow should be interesting. Asia and Europe were genrally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 260 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions and todays drop in the NASDAQ qualifies that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted losses on the session, with the NASDAQ once again leading the way lower. It is hard to have a positive outlook going forward with the NASDAQ down in the dumps. The short term indicators for the S&P are still trending lower and are at the mid-range level. Sellers have the upper hand for now. Gold was up $29 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2. Volume remains good here. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to trend sideways. We still like the idea of trying the GDX February puts going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today. The indicators here are still tracking higher but without any conviction. Got above the 20 level again but then fell back. Again, we are getting a mixed picture from the indicators when it applies to the SPY right now so we are waiting for a solid signal one way or the other. There is still plenty of time in the February option cycle to put on a trade with regards to the SPY. Remaining patient for now. I'm leaning towards the calls. Asia and Europe were higher except for the NIKK and the DAX. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We had the return of volatility today as the Dow fell 166 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues to track sideways. It was a one day downside reversal for most indices as stocks opened higher and closed lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 dropped almost sixty points. The short term indicators there are now moving lower. It did bounce off of the 50 day moving average though. I do not think we are in for a big drop here right away but I could be wrong. We are still waiting for a signal to trade the SPY options. Gold had a much needed bounce today as the futures gained $310. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU rose over 17 1/2, while GDX added 4. Volume remains pretty heavy here. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have begun to turn up. This is a start to the bounce we are looking for in order to try and get the GDX February puts again. Ideally this would occur at around the 105 level for GDX if it can make it back that far. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot higher today before falling back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are now pointing higher. It appears that volatility has made a comeback which means that the trading has to be quite nimble to be successful. I don't have a good handle on the SPY right now so we will have to sit things out there. I do favor the GDX puts again at some point before the February option expiration. However we will remain patient for now. Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Higher prices to begin the week as the Dow gained 515 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. The Dow led the way today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. Most of the short term indicators remain overbought for the S&P. Not sure where it is heading next but it is on the cusp of a new all time high. We were waiting for Fridays jobs report but it now is delayed due to another Federal government shut down. Not sure when it will be coming out. Waiting on the next signal for trading the SPY options. Gold dropped $62 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4. Volume remains heavy here. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving down with some already oversold. We are waiting for a bounce in the gold shares to try the GDX February puts. The gold shares lost around 17% from the high to the low in two days to end last week. Hoping for some kind of bounce off of that but we may just see a grind lower as well. Not expecting gold itself to make it back the the all time high anytime soon. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators here are now heading down. This would bode well for stocks in the near term but we'll have to wait and see. Really need to see the NASDAQ get going to the upside for the bulls to be in charge. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We saw some selling to end the month of January as the Dow fell 179 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways pattern. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that is not a positive. The S&P 500 had a modest loss but again finished off of the worst levels on the session. The short term indicators here are rolling over but some remain in overbought territory. The question is are they rolling over to start a significant decline or are we going to bounce back to new all time highs? The NASDAQ daily chart has a more bearish look to it and is usually the leader. I'll ponder the possibilities this weekend. Gold got beaten to death as players headed to the exits. The gold futures lost $470 today to close back below $5000. Silver fell over 25%. In one day. The parabolic moves never end well. They are violent on the upside and equally severe going down. Take a look at the gold or silver weekly and monthly candlestick charts to get a view. My guess is that there will be more downside to follow. We will still be looking at the GDX puts on any near term rally before the February option expiration. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU lost over 54 points and GDX fell 13 3/4. Volume exploded to the downside for the busiest day in years. This is what happens when everybody is trying to get out at the same time. The short term indicators for GDX are heading lower with some already oversold. We will try the GDX February puts on any bounce. Is it possible that gold and silver turn back up and head to new highs soon? I sincerely doubt it. Mentally I'm having mixed feelings. It was good that we were at least on the right track with regards to the gold shares. However not getting filled on the put orders means that the right adjustments were not made and we missed out on what would have been a profitable trade. There are no moral victories in this game. We are here to make money and it is as simple as that. The VIX was higher again which fits a down market. The short term indicators are trending higher with room to go. However there is no conviction with the way they are moving at the moment. Not sure what that means. Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility made a comeback today but the Dow managed a gain of 56 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way down for most major indices but came up from the lows of the session. The S&P 500 was down over 100 points during the day but came back to post only a small loss. Most of its short term indicators remain overbought. Not sure what to expect next here as the short term sell signal that we received may have run its course after todays price action. The option premiums for SPY remain elevated. Gold got whipped around like the stock market today but the futures ended with a gain of $80. The US dollar closed a bit lower as did interest rates. The XAU fell over 14 points and GDX lost 4 1/2. Volume was extremely heavy here on a one day downside reversal. My open order for the GDX February puts didn't get filled and I adjusted it a couple of times early this morning to no avail so I canceled the order. The premiums for the GDX puts did not go lower even when GDX itself was making new highs. That usually never happens but it was a tip off that the market makers knew something that we didn't. The short term indicators remain overbought for GDX. I still like the idea of the February puts for GDX but will wait to see if it trys to reach the near term highs again. As I have said before both gold and silver have gone parabolic and that condition cannot last. There's plenty of time left in the February option cycle with three weeks to go. Might place another open order for the GDX February puts overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but again retreated from the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are turning up. Once again I'm not sure where this indicator goes next. Asia was higher and Europe little changed with the exception of the DAX which lost 2%. End of the month tomorrow.

The Fed came and went but there weren't any fireworks as the market traded sideways for much of the day. The Dow rose a dozen points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to trend flat. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain and the S&P 500 ended the day basically unchanged. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The S&P 500 touched 7000 for the first time but did not close there. Some of its short term indicators have reached overbought territory. The short term sell signal on one of our indicators remains in place. We've got some tech earnings coming in after the bell and that may get things going one way or the other. On the sidelines regarding the SPY options for now. Gold blasted off $290 higher on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The gold shares were up but they didn't have as big an advance as gold itself. The XAU was higher by 10 1/2, while GDX added 2 7/8. Volume remains good to the upside. I thought that my open order for the GDX February puts would get hit today but it wasn't. I'm leaving it out there at the price I'm willing to risk on this idea. Maybe it will get filled tomorrow or maybe I'll cancel it. Gold is moving straight up and that cannot last forever. Overdue for a pullback or at least some kind of rest for the precious metals but buyers show up on any dip for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was unchanged on the session but down from its best levels. The short term indicators here are tracking sideways. The daily chart now looks like it wants to go lower from here which would be a positive for stocks. However with the sideways indicator readings for the VIX things really could go either way here. I'm certainly not sure and that's another reason why we are waiting on the next SPY option trade. Asia up and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Somewhat of a mixed picture today as the Dow fell 409 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were higher. The summation index is still moving higher. Much of the Dow loss can be attributed to the steep drop in UNH. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent gains with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. The S&P closed at a new all time high. The short term indicators there are still moving higher with some already overbought. We are getting a short term sell signal on the S&P from one of our indicators but I'm holding off on the SPY February puts for now. Option premiums here remain high. Gold was up $90 on the futures. The US dollar got crushed today which helped support gold. Interest rates were little changed or slightly higher. The gold shares had a one day upside reversal as they opened lower and closed higher. The XAU rose 4 1/3 and GDX was up around 1 3/4. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. I've still got my open order for the GDX February puts out there but will reconsider this idea tonight. The negative action in the US dollar today could be a cause for concern and drive gold higher instead of turning around here as I thought. As usual, the trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and the short term indicators here are trending sideways. The daily candlestick chart has the look like it wants to go higher which would not bode well for stocks. We'll see. The Fed is on tap tomorrow but that seems to be in the background which hasn't happened for a while. We still expect no change in rates as does the rest of the world. All eyes and ears on what the chairman has to say after that. Asia and Europe were higher with the exception of the DAX. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive start to the week for stocks as the Dow gained 313 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still trending up. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish outcome but we'll take the gains. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving higher with room to go. We are almost at a short term sell signal there ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Option premiums remain high though. Not sure if we are going to try the SPY February puts here. Gold rallied over the $5000 mark as the futures were up sixty bucks. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added around 1/2. Volume was heavy for the gold shares as they fell back from the best levels on the session. My open order for the GDX February puts wasn't filled in the morning when the gold shares soared. It certainly should have been filled in my mind. The fact that it didn't get filled lets us know that the market makers know more than we do as the put premiums remained high despite the move up in the gold shares. It tells me that the GDX puts should work here as the gold shares remian overbought and have gone parabolic. I'm leaving my open order out there and we'll see if GDX trys to make it back to the high of today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today. The short term indicators here are starting to trend sideways. They are not yet oversold. Not sure what comes next here for the VIX but if the indicators start to move up we'll be in for a decline. That would be even more compelling for the GDX put trade or the SPY puts. But it hasn't happened yet. Geo-political tensions remain in the background with the Fed on Wednesday as the possible main event. We don't expect any change in interest rates but the speech after the announcement may be the catalyst. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to begin the trading week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.