Still moving higher going into the weekend as the Dow gained 353 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is starting to move back up. The Dow led things higher today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 was up 1/2%. The short term indicators there are trending higher with some back to mid-range. I'm thinking that if we see strength into Tuesday of next week perhaps we'll try the SPY June puts ahead of the Fed. It is a holiday shortened option expiration week though, with US markets closed on Friday. So any June option trade would be filled with a lot of risk at this point. I'll consider things over the weekend. Gold was up $114 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU rose 9 1/2 and GDX was up 2 1/3. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up with plenty of room to go. The weekly candlestick chart here has a potential bullish star or hammer on it. I canceled my open order for the GDX July calls as I've missed the chance at the moment. However I still like the idea of this trade and will be looking to buy some GDX calls on any forthcoming weakness. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits the upside market for today. The short term indicators here are moving down. The VIX is back below 20 and the daily chart looks like it wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks. But I can't say that I have a good feel for where the VIX is heading next after the volatility of this week. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Asia and Europe were both higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving back to the upside as the Dow climbed 930 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn back up. The inflation data was higher than expected but the market rallied anyway. That tells us something because when the market ignores bad news it is probably ready to move higher. There might be some backing and filling but our guess would be that this decline has run its course. Unless we see some kind of big 1000 point decline in the Dow tomorrow but I doubt it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. It also closed above the short term down trend line that was in effect. No SPY option trades in mind right now with only five days left in the June option cycle but that could change. Gold was up $96 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU was up around 16 3/4 and GDX added about 4. Volume was heavy to the upside. I did place an open order for the GDX July calls overnight but it wasn't filled. I am leaving it out there but it may be too late already. The short term indicators for GDX are turning back up but remain oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with the rally. Back below the 20 level and the short term indicators here are heading lower. If the VIX can stay below 20 we'll know that the decline is over. If it can't our thinking here will be wrong. So it is something to keep an eye on. Another factor to consider is todays big rally out of nowhere. Sometimes in longer declines this is what you see before quickly turning back down. So market action tomorrow is something to be closely watched as well. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 953 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down again. The inflation data came in where expected. Support for the S&P 500 comes in at 7150, with better support at 7000. Depending on the reaction to tomorrows inflation news we could get to the first area of support soon. The short term indicators for the S&P are now heading lower but not yet completely oversold. I'm still interested in the SPY June puts again if perhaps we snap back to the short term down trend line. That comes in around 7350. There is a possible double bottom on the S&P hourly chart though. Plenty to ponder at the moment. Gold got clobbered again as the futures fell 186 points. The US dollar was slightly higher and so were interest rates. The XAU lost 14 3/4, while GDX fell 3 3/4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. I will be checking the charts again tonight but I may place an open order for the GDX July calls overnight. The gold shares are in a bear market but they are blown out to the downside and due for at least a bounce. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. Back above the 20 level. The short term indicators on the VIX have turned up and are just about completely overbought. Another day like today would do it. With the VIX over 20, volatility will be the rule. Most of Europe and Asia were down overnight. I'll keep an eye out for any new developments this evening.

Volatilty was the name of the game today along with one day downside reversals as most indices opened higher and closed lower. The Dow however did manage a gain of 86 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is still the underlying theme. We had a big gap at the open and markets powered higher but it was short lived. Stocks then turned around and went into free fall for a couple of hours only to turn back around and recoup almost all of the losses. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are all over the place. Some are moving lower, some higher and the rest sideways. During the brief morning rally I was stopped out of my SPY June put position only to see things turn back down during the session. The trade had around a 30% gain but should have been much more. I've been stopped out before only to see things turn around on a trade and that is one of the reasons why I sometimes don't use them. There are also many times where the stop has saved me from bigger losses. The entry on this trade was OK even though not the best but the exit was terrible. That said we simply move on from here because that position is over. I am still considering the SPY June puts if we see some rally the rest of this week. Gold fell $81 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 4 1/3, while GDX slid about a point. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still oversold. We are now thinking about the GDX July calls but not exactly sure if that will be the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as to getting stopped out of what could have been a huge gain. But the market doesn't care and you've got to keep moving forward in this game. The VIX was higher today but off of its best levels. Some of the short term indicators here are heading sideways and some are still heading higher. The VIX closed just below the 20 level. I'm still not sure where the VIX is headed but anything above 20 spells more selling for stocks. It is another reason to still consider the SPY June puts going forward. Seven days left for the June option cycle. Inflation data due out tomorrow should get things moving once again. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Bouncing back today for the overall market but not the Dow as it fell 80 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is starting to drift lower. We had a big gap up at the open and rallied for the first hour and a half. The rest of the day was spent in a slow decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that is a plus for the bulls. Also the fact that we didn't see any downside follow through to Fridays debacle is a positive sign. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned sideways. It looks like Friday could have just been a one day wonder. We've got inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. I don't know how much longer I can afford to hold on the my SPY June puts. I do have a stop loss order in place and they are still showing a profit. However the gains are less than what they were on Friday. I'll once again consider what to do with them tonight. Gold was off $14 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an overall positive day for stocks. It is back below the 20 level. Some of the short term indicators here have turned back down. I'm not sure what comes next for the VIX. Asia and Europe were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We often say that the market goes where it wants and todays price action certainly underscores that truth. Stocks got clobbered but the Dow only fell 695 points which wasn't as bad as some of the other stock indices. Volume was heavy. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to drop out of the sideways channel that it's in. The jobs report came in better than expected. The NASDAQ led the way down and fell over a thousand points. That was better than a 4% drop. The S&P 500 lost 200 points for a better than 2 1/2% dip. It was a rush to the exits but the TRAN posted a gain on the day probably due to the drop in the price of oil. The S&P 500 broke through the short term up trend line that had been in effect since the beginning of April. The short term indicators here are now steeply heading south and at this rate will be oversold on Monday. It looks like the sell signal we got last week was valid although it took some time to come to fruition. The negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart worked this time around as well. Not sure how low things will go here but we'll check the charts over the weekend. The advance/declines today were not as bad as the price declines that we saw. Gold got clocked as well with the futures down $166. The XAU lost 31 1/2 and GDX dropped around 7 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. GDX has now dropped well below its 200 day moving average as it did not hold. The short term indicators here are pointing down in oversold territory. 80 was the next level of support here and it closed below that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a huge jump today and closed above the 20 level. That was certainly a surprise to me. Could spell more trouble for stocks. The short term indicators here zoomed up and some still have room to go before being overbought. Things here for the VIX have changed in a hurry. Not sure what comes next. The SPY June puts that I hold went from solid losers to solid winners in a day. Not sure how much longer that I'll hold them but will try and figure that out over the weekend. Plenty of work to do in the next two days. Asia and Europe were lower to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow powered higher today as it gained 874 points to a new all time high on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now in a sideways channel. We had a huge gap lower at the open for most of the major indices but they moved back up for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ only posted a small loss after being down much more early on. The S&P 500 had a one day upside reversal as it opened lower and closed higher. The short term indicators there remain overbought and some are moving back up. My SPY June put position was at break even on the open but then deteriorated for the rest of the day. It is now back to being solidly in the red and will most likely finish as a loser. We needed to see some follow through selling to yesterdays decline but we quickly only got it this morning before turning around. My management of this trade hasn't been that good but we do have two weeks left in the June option cycle. Gold was up $41 on the futures. The US dolllar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU was up 5 1/4, while GDX added 1 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up as it also tries to hold on to its 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an upside day for most stocks. It remains short term oversold and remains that way during rallies like the one that we're in now. The employment data is due out tomorrow which can be a market mover if there are any surprises. We are still at the mercy of the next headline out of the Middle East. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 620 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to turn lower. The Dow led things lower which isn't the most bearish scenario. Let's face it, stocks were overdue for some kind of downside reaction. The market doesn't go up every day in a row. The question is whether or not this is the beginning of some sustained move to the downside or just a breather. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 have turned lower but remain overbought. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart is there. It's possible that today is all we get out of that signal. We'll see if there's more but the market goes where it wants. My SPY June puts are showing less of a loss. Not sure how much longer I want to hold this trade. We'll check things out again tonight. Gold was down $52 today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost over 12 1/2 and GDX dropped around 3 points. Volume was lighter than average. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving sideways in oversold territory. GDX did close below its 200 day moving average. No GDX trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today but not by much considerng the drop in stocks. The short term indicators here remain oversold. Not sure what to expect next with regards to the VIX. The jobs report on Friday should be the next market mover unless we get some headlines out of the Middle East. Europe was lower and Asia mixed again last night. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The Dow led the way today as it gained 228 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. New all time highs were registered again for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. The sell signal that we received from one of our indicators last week did not work again. It is the second time in a row that it failed. Can't say that I've seen that happen recently. The short term indicators for the S&P simply remain overbought as the market drifts higher. The potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart still barely exists. My SPY June put trade is a loser and we may already be in a cut the loss mode for it. All declines are still being bought. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a touch lower. The XAU rose around 5 3/4, while GDX added about 1 3/8. Volume was a little below average. The short term indicators are still trying to turn higher from oversold for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. It's short term indicators remain in oversold territory. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks. There seems to be ample money flowing around that wants to find a home in equities. If the market doesn't head lower tomorrow I will have to seriously think about getting out of the SPY put trade. We'll see. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Continuing higher to start the week as the Dow rose 46 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside and that's a plus for the bulls. New all time highs for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 again. It looks like the sell signal that we got last week isn't going to work again but we'll give it a couple of more days this week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought and staying that way. The potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart remains barely intact. My SPY June puts are now showing a loss as it looks like today was the perhaps the proper time to buy them. Still plenty of time for this trade to work out but not if the rally continues. Gold lost $82 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU shed 7 1/2, while GDX lost around 2 3/4. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares did finish up from their lows on the day. The short term indicators for GDX are choppy on the oversold side. The 200 day moving average remains as near term support. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with a positive day for stocks. The short term indicators are turning higher but remain in oversold territory. Not sure what comes next for the VIX. Light on the economic data due out this week. Fridays jobs report is the one that will be closely watched. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The Dow led things higher today as it climbed 363 points on end of the month extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to move higher. New all time closing highs once again for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought with the potential negative RSI divergence there barely still in place. More upside on Monday would put an end to that. My open order for the SPY June puts was not going to get filled so I adjusted it higher a couple of times during the session. It finally did get filled in the final hour. It is about where I purchased it when the market closed. We are still getting a sell signal from one of our indicators, however the last time that happened with this particular signal the market simply kept going up. So we'll see how this trade ends up as the management of it will be the key. I do expect weakness at the beginning of next week but markets go where they want. Gold was up $42 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 7 1/2 and GDX added 2 1/4. Volume was average. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have started to move higher. There is a short term down trend line still in effect there though. It comes in around the 93 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators here are now very oversold. That is another reason to give the SPY June puts here a try for a short term trade. The caveat being that during rallies the VIX stays oversold for an extended period of time. But this is a trade that we wanted to take so we'll see how it goes. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Asia and Europe were mixed to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher for the overall market but the Dow only managed a gain of 24 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. New all time highs again for the Big 3 of the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. Inflation data came in a touch lighter than expected. Stocks are still being held hostage for the latest sound bite from the Iran conflict. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. There is no overhead resistance. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions. The NASDAQ would probably qualify for that today but not the other indices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. Some of the potential negative divergences that we saw there have been invalidated. That hasn't happened yet for the RSI but it could if we keep moving higher. My open order for the SPY June puts remains out there and another positive day like today would likely get it filled. I would like to own the puts going into this weekend but only at the price that we are willing to pay. Option premiums remain high. Gold was up $46 on the futres. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 8 1/2, while GDX added 1 3/4. Volume was average. Once again the 200 day moving average held for GDX. The short term indicators there are trying to move up from oversold territory. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators are oversold and staying there. The VIX seems to imply that higher stock prices are in the near future. But I am in the camp that a decline is coming and sooner rather than later. I could be wrong. If the negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 gets wiped out then the SPY June put idea that we are looking at right now would be incorrect. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll close out the trading month of May tomorrow.

Hanging around today as the Dow gained 182 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. It was a sideways session ahead of the inflation data out tomorrow. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 all closed at new all time highs but the gains were slight. We are getting a sell signal from one of our indicators after todays price action. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought and there is now a potential negative divergence on some. I would not be surprised if we head lower after the inflation data is reported. My open order for the SPY June puts was not filled and I'm leaving it out there. Might be too late now though, we'll see. I still like the idea of having some index puts heading into the weekend however the premiums remain elevated. Gold dropped over fifty bucks today. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. Waiting on tomorrows data. The XAU fell around 10 3/4, while GDX lost almost 3. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators for GDX are still oversold but it is holding above its 200 day moving average. Not sure where the gold shares are heading next so we are back to watching and waiting here. Yesterday we though that a rally might be starting for GDX but there was no follow through upside today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here remain oversold. The VIX remains comfortably below the 20 level which gives the all clear for stocks going forward. But we still remain in the bearish camp for the near term as we look for an entry point to try the SPY June puts. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll keep watch on the evenings developments.

Back from a long weekend and the Dow was the laggard today as it fell 118 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The overall market did much better with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 reaching new all time closing highs. The short term indicators for the S&P are overbought. They are at lower readings than the recent previous high. If they continue higher the potential negative divergance that we were looking for will be wiped clean. I did place an open order for the SPY June puts overnight. It wasn't filled today but I am leaving it out there. The only important economic data due this week is Thursdays inflation report. Iran conflict headlines remain in the near term picture. Gold was off $16 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 13 3/8, while GDX added 3 1/2. Volume was average. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive for this area. The short term indicators for GDX are turning up and it appears that the 200 day moving average has held the near term decline. I still don't have any GDX option trades in mind here but we may have to rethink that. It also might already be too late for the June calls here but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with a positive market. The short term indicators here are trying to move up from the oversold side. Not sure what comes next for the VIX. The S&P set a new all time high and there is no overhead resistance. We are sticking with the view that the June puts are the way to go here and will try and purchase them at some point this week. Asia and Europe were lower overnight with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a rally that faded today but the Dow still managed a gain of 294 points on good volume to close at a new all time high. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Dow led things higher again today which isn't the most bullish picture. However considering there was a gain going into a long weekend the bulls will take it. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving higher but are not yet completely overbought. A couple more days of gains here and we might have our scenario of a new all time high for the S&P with lower indicators readings. I still favor the SPY June puts for now. Gold dropped $33 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat, while interest rates were mixed. The XAU fell 4 1/8 and GDX lost about a point. Volume was light. GDX is still holding on at its 200 day moving average while the short term indicators remain oversold. Perhaps the gold shares are putting in some kind of short term bottom here. We'll take a closer look over the long weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was unchanged today. Some of the short term indicators here are starting to move sideways. Not sure what's next for the VIX. A holiday weekend on tap gives us an extra day to check over the charts. We are still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict headline. However if things line up for us we will try the SPY June puts in the middle of next week. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a one day upside reversal today as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 276 points on heavy volume to close at a new all time high. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The Dow led the way up today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to move sideways. Still considering the SPY June puts and perhaps will purchase them next week. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar had a small gain and interest rates finished generally flat. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves either way on light volume. GDX continues to hold on its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold and trending sideways. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that is in line with a positive stock market. The short term indicators here are moving down and are not yet oversold. I'm remaining patient here as we have a Friday before a holiday weekend on tap tomorrow. The market is still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict headline as we saw in a mid-day rally today. Not sure that traders will want to hang on to stocks ahead of the weekend but we'll see. Waiting on a good technical set up for the next trade. Might see something of that nature next week. Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.

Buyers returned today as the Dow gained 645 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way back up and that's a plus for the bulls. The market is back to waiting for the next Iran conflict headline. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. Perhaps we'll get our preferred scenario of a higher high with lower indicator readings. Too early to tell on that. Also waiting on the after the bell NVDA earnings. Gold was up $38 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up over 11 3/4, while GDX added 2 1/2. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX are turning back up but remain in oversold territory. GDX held at its 200 day moving average today. We are still not taking on any gold share trades here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here have turned down with room to go. Two trading days left this week before a long holiday weekend. It appears that we will let this week go by and take it from there. That is the plan for now. Europe was higher overnight and Asia lower with the exception of India. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market cannot seem to gain any upside traction here as the Dow fell 322 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We will take our cues from that. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and as long as that's the case things will be trending lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now moving down and are no longer overbought. There is plenty of room for them to move lower. We still like the idea for the SPY June puts here but are waiting for some kind of bounce back in order to purchase. If this is some sort of sustained decline we should see some kind of rally attempt before heading lower again. But markets go where they want and perhaps stocks will just continue to be sold. Gold dropped $69. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell almost 13 points and GDX slid 3 1/3. Volume was average. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are now oversold. The longer term up trend line from January 2025 has been broken. The next area of support for GDX comes in at the recent lows around the 80 level. No GDX option trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today. The short term indicators here are around mid-range and pointing up. It seems to me that the VIX could go either way from here. However the feel of things right now is that the market has rolled over and we are in the beginning of a sustained decline. As long as the summation index is moving down we will stick with that thesis. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Overall selling continued today but not for the Dow which rose 160 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower and the S&P posted a slight loss. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought but not completely. We do feel that the stock market is overdue for a rest. Our best case scenario would be for the S&P to make a new high with lower short term indicator values to form a negative divergence. That would be the time to try the SPY June puts. Markets rarely cooperate though. Gold rose $3 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 3 1/4, while GDX shed around 1/4. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have begun to stall. GDX is hugging the long term up trend line that began around a year and a half ago. If you think that line will hold this is the spot to try the GDX calls. However I am not in that camp but of course I could be wrong. I am looking at the SPY June puts as the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't really fit with an overall down market. Its short term indicators are trying to move lower. Can't say that I know where the VIX is going at the moment. Option premiums are high as we roll into the June option cycle. I'll try and stay patient for now. Not a lot of economic data out this week and we are getting near the end of earnings season. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Some selling for a change on expiration Friday as the Dow lost 537 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. There was a huge gap lower at the open. From there we moved sideways before closing near the lows of the session. A broad sell off as most of the major averages were down over 1%. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Not sure if this is the beginning of a downturn or something option expiration related. One day doesn't make a trend. The steep up trend line for the S&P 500 has been violated but that angle of ascent could not last forever. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned down but they remain overbought. Still considering the SPY June puts. Gold got clobbered as the futures were off $135. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell over 27 and GDX lost 6 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over with room to go. The weekly candlestick chart here had a bullish engulfing pattern after last week but now shows a dark cloud cover after this week. GDX is now on the verge of breaking the longer term up trend line that began in January 2025. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround for the gold shares next week it looks like that line will fail. The market will let us know sooner rather than later. I am no longer looking at the GDX June calls as the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but off of the highest point of the session. The short term indicators here have turned back up with room to go. If the VIX gets back above 20 we will expect more volatility and lower prices considering that the summation index is already moving lower. Not sure if that is going to happen but we'll know in the coming days. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as we try and figure out where things are going next. The June options have an extra week in them which makes the premiums pricey. Asia and Europe sold off to end the week as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the beat goes on. The Dow gained 370 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Retail sales came in where expected. No big news positive or negative from the US/China summit. The NASDAQ is still leading things higher and as long as that's the case the bulls will have the upper hand. New all time closing highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 again. The technical picture remains the same for the S&P 500. Overbought and staying that way for much longer than normal. I'm still considering the SPY June puts for now. Gold was off $44 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU dropped almost 10 points and GDX lost 2 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. We will try and wait for GDX to get short term oversold in order to attempt the June calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. Its short term technical indicators are trying to turn back down from about the mid-range level. It looks like the VIX wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks going forward. But the market can't stay overbought forever can it? Option expiration Friday on tap so we will see if volatility picks up. Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

All aboard as the market train keeps chugging along. The Dow continues to lag though as it fell 67 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. The NASDAQ led the overall market higher once again and that is a plus. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at records again. There is no overhead resistance. The thesis of stocks moving higher into the Friday option expiration appears to have been correct. The inflation data came in much worse than expected. After a brief decline in the first half hour buyers took over and stock markets moved up. Markets that ignore bad news are going to go higher. We don't know why but markets always know more than we do. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as it has been for over a month. This isn't business as usual as the angle of ascent remains very steep. Breadth hasn't been good lately and the rise will end at some point but we are not going to try to guess when that occurs. All ideas for the SPY May puts are off. We will look out to June and the option premiums there have an extra week on them. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are now overbought. I am still considering the GDX June calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The short term indicators here are continuing to rise despite the rally in stocks today. Not sure what's going on here with the VIX. I haven't had a good handle on this indicator lately. We'll get retail sales tomorrow and probably some news out of the US/China meetings. It looks like I won't be making any trades during the May option cycle. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye tonights headlines.

Quite an interesting session today where stocks sold off hard early and then tried but failed to come all the way back. The Dow managed a gain of 56 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The inflation data came in about where expected but sellers took control early on. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted losses for the day with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. At one point the S&P clearly broke the steep up trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of April. However by the close you can make the case for that line still being in control just not as steep. I am still considering the SPY May puts with only three days to go in the May option cycle but the market will have to cooperate for me to try this idea again. We'll see. Gold was off $7 on the futures but came up from the lows for the day. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX a fractional loss on average volume. The gold shares came back from decent losses early in the day. GDX is getting to short term overbought but not there completely yet. I am looking at the GDX June calls now. There is a positive bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart for GDX here. Money seems to be coming back into this space. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall down market. Its short term indicators are trying to turn back down. The indicators are closer to mid-range than overbought or oversold. I'm still not sure where the VIX is heading next. More inflation data tomorrow followed by retail sales due Thursday. The US/China summit will be getting underway as well. Plenty of excuses for market movement. If we see some upside tomorrow we might try the SPY puts or perhaps on Thursday morning. Running out of time and plenty of risk in that scenario. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Hanging around on a Monday as the Dow rose 95 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Basically waiting around for the inflation data tomorrow. New all time highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 but not by much. The short term indicators remain stuck in overbought territory for the S&P. I did place an open order for the SPY May puts overnight but it wasn't filled and I canceled it during the session. Might try again tomorrow if the market moves higher early on. It also might be too late. Plenty of noise in the background this week with economic data, the ongoing Iran conflict and a US/China summit beginning on Wednesday. The technical picture for the S&P is still overbought and that cannot last forever. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. The XAU gained 15 3/4 and GDX added 3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares did much better than the metal itself and that's bullish. GDX also broke above its short term down trend line. The short term technical indicators here are still moving up and are not yet completely overbought. Money is moving into this space. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which does not fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are now moving higher. I still do not have a good handle on what the VIX is doing here. With only four days left in the May option cycle any trade taken on now has more risk than usual. Not sure if I will attempt anything this week. Asia and Europe began the week on a mixed note. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Once again the overall market powered higher and the Dow lagged behind. The most watched index rose 12 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. The jobs report came in better than expected. The NASDAQ was the clear leader once again. It closed at a new all time high along with the S&P 500. The S&P simply remains short term overbought with no overhead resistance. The bulls are clearly in charge. This could persist into option expiration next Friday which would make our idea of getting some SPY May puts wrong. We'll go over all the details this weekend and decide what action if any to take. Gold was up $22 on the futures. The US dollar was lower as were interest rates. The XAU was up 11 1/2, while GDX added 2 3/4. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators for GDX are back to moving higher with room to go. The short term down trend line remains in place here but another positive session will break through it. It looks like I've missed the GDX call trade here so it is probably a better idea to look elsewhere with only a week left in the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was slightly higher today which does not fit with an upside market. The short term indicators here are moving sideways in oversold territory. I am still not sure where this indicator is heading next. A lot of work to do over the weekend to try and come up with a game plan for next week. Plenty of economic numbers due out including a couple of inflation reports. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It looked like some profit taking ahead of tomorrows jobs report as the Dow fell 313 points on pretty heavy volume once again. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Stocks did finish well off of the morning highs though. The NASDAQ posted a slight loss and the S&P 500 had a small one. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P have turned back lower but it remains in overbought territory. The short term up trend line for the S&P, which is pretty steep, remains intact. We are now looking at the SPY May puts. Gold was up $30 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher as were interest rates. The XAU was off around 2 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was above average. The gold shares finished well off of the highs for the session and closed near the lows. They also underperformed the precious metal itself. GDX was stopped at its short term down trend line and pulled back. Some of the short term indicators here are beginning to move sideways. It is possible that my idea here for the GDX calls is not going to work and that the bounce off of the longer term trend line is over. I'll reconsider things tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which does not fit with a down market. The short term technical indicators here have turned lower and remain in oversold territory. I do not have a good idea of where the VIX is heading next. The employment report should be the main focus tomorrow morning and we'll see how the market reacts to that. News on the Iran conflict continues to go back and forth. Looking for an entry point to try the SPY May puts. Europe closed down and Asia was higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Up, up and away as the bulls are on a stampede. The Dow gained 612 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. Once again the NASDAQ led the way, finishing up over 2%. There is no overhead resistance. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 closed at new records again and the Dow is trying to join them. The short term technical overbought condition for the S&P hasn't changed in a month. It has lasted much longer than I thought it would. It is on the brink of becoming parabolic and we all know how that ends. We'll enjoy the ride while it lasts. Gold climbed $134 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU soared 26 2/3, while GDX jumped 6 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. Another missed trade on the calls here but we will be looking to get some on any near term pullback. Mondays lack of decline in the gold shares when gold sank was a clue. GDX has held the longer term up trend line for now as that support proved to be valid. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up with room to go. The open interest on the GDX 90 calls has shrank and now is not the deterrent that I thought it would be just a couple of days ago. We don't enjoy missing out on opportunities. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat after being lower early on. That certainly doesn't fit with a big positive day for stocks. The short term indicators here also simply tracked sideways. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Were todays huge gains a speculative blow off top with heavy volume? Not sure but we can't rule it out. But we also know that things can still run up into the option expiration next week. It appears that the Iran conflict has now taken a back seat. News from there does not have the same effect that it did earlier. I'll be watching the gold shares as that looks like it still could be my next trade. Asia and Europe were higher as money is pouring back into stocks around the globe. We will keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Buyers returned as the Dow gained 356 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues sideways. Gains would have been even better but there was a late last ten minute slide. The NASDAQ is still leading the way up so that's a plus. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs again. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up as they remain in overbought territory. There still seems to be plenty of money to throw at stocks for now. Gold bounced back $32 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. GDX remains short term oversold and still hanging on to the longer term up trend line. I'm still looking at the GDX June calls as a potential next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and some of the short term indicators here have turned back lower. Still on the oversold side of the ledger here. I'm not sure where the VIX is heading next. Waiting on the jobs report due Friday. Until then we'll probably just sit on our hands. No need to force anything until we get some type of valid technical signal. Europe was generally higher and what was open in Asia generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Some weakness to begin the week as the Dow led the way lower with a loss of 557 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought but are trying to roll over. Earnings are still in the picture for this week but the main event will be the employment report due out on Friday. I'm not considering any SPY options trades at the moment. Gold got slammed and dropped $114 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 5 3/8, while GDX slid 1 1/2. Volume was light. Considering the drop in gold itself, the gold shares held up rather well. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold and staying there. I'm now looking out to the GDX June calls. Considering the above average open interest in the GDX May calls it doesn't look like GDX will get much above the 90 level by option expiration next week if it even gets that far at all. GDX is also in the process of testing the longer term up trend line in the 85 area. If it doesn't hold that will be another negative for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. Some of the short term indicators here are now heading higher. Not sure what's coming next on the VIX. The market was fighting higher oil prices today and is still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict headline. It is also still short term overbought and that condition has gone on for too long already. Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.

We started the day with a gap higher only to move sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow though ended in the red as it lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market fared much better with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closing at records. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 closed down from its best levels on the session and remains short term overbought. The daily candlestick chart here has a shooting star for today which would imply lower prices on Monday. We'll see. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost over 4 3/4 and GDX shed around 1 1/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators on GDX remain in the oversold zone. I am considering the GDX May calls but there is a short term down trend line still in place here. Not to mention the gold shares had a poor day when gold itself didn't do much and the overall market was higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and is still short term oversold. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. We made it through the week with some of the major averages closing at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance and the bulls are in charge. That said we are entering an unfavorable seasonal period in general for stocks. But we certainly don't know if that will hold true this time around or when any sustained selling would begin. I'll continue to focus on the short term trading ideas. We'll go over the charts in the next couple of days to try and figure something out for the May options cycle. Asia was mixed and much of Europe closed on holiday to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside as buyers took over after some early volatility. The Dow roared ahead by 790 points on pretty heavy volume. It was the leader of the pack today. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. The inflation data came in where expected. Tech earnings were positive for the most part with the exception of META. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 continue to remain overbought. No overhead resistance for the S&P as we begin to wonder just how high things will go. Gold was up $68 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 8 1/8, while GDX rose 2 points. Volume was a touch above average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. I did place an order for the GDX May calls last night but it wasn't filled. GDX opened with a big gap higher and then traded sideways for the rest of the day. I canceled my order as it did not have a chance of getting filled. We will now have to decide if this idea is still worth pursuing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with the positive move in stocks. The short term indicators have turned back down and some are already short term oversold again. The daily candlestick chart here now looks like it is going to go lower. Perhaps stocks will simply stay elevated into the May option expiration but that's a guess. Not exactly sure what our next trade attempt will be. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher last night. We'll begin the month of May and close out the trading week tomorrow.

More of the same as sideways price movement has been the theme of the past couple of sessions. The Dow did lose 280 points though, on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has stalled. The Fed left rates unchanged as expected. Next up are after the bell tech earnings followed by an inflation report tomorrow morning. The NASDAQ posted a small gain and the S&P 500 had a small loss. The short term indicators on the S&P remain overbought. The daily candlestick chart here has a consolidation in progress after the recent huge run up. It is either building some kind of top or simply a pause before going higher. I'm not sure which it is but the S&P cannot stay overbought forever. Gold was off $47 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 9 3/8 and GDX dropped 2 1/3. Volume was average. GDX is short term oversold and in a down trend. The up trend line for GDX that began at the beginning of 2025 comes in around the 85 area and it is almost there. I would like to try the GDX May calls there but everything seems to be against taking a position on the plus side for gold right now. That said, I'll be taking a closer look overnight and might put in an open order for those May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with the Dow but not the overall market. The short term indicators here are now moving up. The daily candlestick chart here now looks like it wants to go higher which would not bode well for stocks. I'm not sure where the VIX is heading next. Markets are still at the mercy of the Iran conflict as oil prices soared today. That had an influence on what took place today. The news can drive things in either direction. Tough trading environment to be sure. However we cannot stay on the sidelines all the time. Asia was mixed and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Lower today as the Dow dipped 25 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now barely moving higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ losing over two hundred points. The S&P had a gap down at the open and then trended sideways. The short term indicatros for the S&P remain overbought. We've got the Fed tomorrow and no change in rates is expected. We still favor the SPY puts now with the market overbought but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold fell $84 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose slightly. The XAU fell 16 2/3, while GDX lost 4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are almost completely oversold. I'm now looking at the GDX May calls as we missed the put trade here. There is a longer term up trend line for GDX that comes in at 85. That would be the spot to try the calls. If it doesn't hold the gold shares will be in trouble. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that does not fit with a down market. The short term indicators here remain oversold in a sideways trend. Not sure what's next for the VIX despite the daily chart implying lower VIX values in the near term. As usual more questions than answers in this game. I'll see how the market reacts to the Fed and take it from there. Asia and Europe were down overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A meandering Monday as stocks drifted sideways to slightly higher. The Dow however fell 62 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up at a slower pace. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs again. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next couple of sessions. We'll find out if that signal works tomorrow. The short term signals for the S&P remain overbought and staying that way. We've got the Fed, an inflation report and plenty of economic data on tap for this week. So there will be lots of excuses for markets to move. Not sure exactly how much longer the S&P can remain overbought and we are looking at the SPY May puts. Options premiums remain high. Gold was off $46 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. The XAU dropped 6 1/2 and GDX lost 1 3/4. Volmue was light. The short term indicators for GDX are oversold but not completely. They've been trending sideways for almost a week. The gold shares appear to be trying to make up their mind where to go next. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower to begin the week. The short term indicators here remain oversold and trending sideways. The daily cnadlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to head down. That would be a boost for stocks if it happens. I am still waiting for some kind of clear technical signal before putting on the next trade. Still plenty of time in the May option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep watch for the overnight developments.

The Dow was the laggard once again as it fell 79 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ by far was the leader today and that is a plus for the bulls. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 ended the week at new all time highs. No overhead resistance. The short term indicators for the S&P remain in overbought territory. The rally for stocks continues after moving sideways for most of the week. Still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict sound bite but it doesn't seem to mean as much to the market anymore. Technically the S&P is overbought, staying that way and we are not going to fight that right now. Gold was up nine bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose almost 6 points and GDX was up over 2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. I'm still not a fan of the gold shares now but we should wait for them to get back to short term overbought before attempting the GDX puts again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here continue in a sideways pattern. The daily chart here still looks like it wants to go lower and the indicators are not completely oversold. Remaining below the 20 level and that is a positive. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend to try and form a game plan for next week. Stocks are in rally mode but we are soon heading into a period of underperformance on a seasonality basis. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility was the name of the game today and the Dow finished with a loss of 179 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 hit a new intra-day high early on and then fell 100 points. It made its way back to more than cut the losses in half by the close. The short term indicators there are still overbought but may be trying to roll over here. We'll have to see how the week closes. Gold dropped $40 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 11 and GDX shed 2 1/4. Volume was good to the downside for the gold shares again. The short term indicators for GDX are back to heading down. I canceled my open order for the GDX May puts as it is already heading down and the ideal time for purchase has passed. This idea might still work but we are going to have to see some upside first for the gold shares before trying it. For now it appears to be another missed opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was a bit higher today which fits a down market. It did move above the 20 level today but made its way back below that level by the close. The short term indicators here are still oversold but not completely so and moving sideways. Not sure where the VIX is headed next but the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. I am now looking at the SPY May puts but the premiums are still high with just over three weeks to go in the May option cycle. We will probably let tomorrow got by and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.

Back to the upside as the Dow climbed 340 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance. The short term indicators for the S&P are stuck in overbought territory. It appears that we had a two day pause in the rally and it has now resumed. But today the TRAN got killed with a huge move lower and that is something to keep an eye on. Gold was up $40 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates up just a touch. The XAU rose 6 1/2 and GDX was up around 1 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall and have not reached oversold territory yet. I did place an open order for the GDX May puts overnight and I'm leaving it out there. However if the indicators start to move up I will cancel that order. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and that fits with the overall higher market. The short term indicators continue to hang around the oversold area. As long as the VIX remains below the 20 level we can conclude that the rally still has legs. News out of Iran doesn't move the markets as much now as it did before. We'll see if that trend continues. Asia finished mixed and Europe was down again overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 293 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower. Retail sales came in better than expected. Markets are still being held hostage to whatever comes out of the Iran conflict. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought but are beginning to roll over. We will see if there is any follow through selling tomorrow. Gold got whacked as the futures fell $130. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 24 1/4 and GDX shed 6 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX are moving down in a hurry. It looks like I've missed the GDX May put trade. It is frustrating but the market doesn't care about our frustrations. The put trade idea still might have some merit but we'll have to see where the rest of the week goes. However after todays price action it looks like this ship has sailed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trying to move up from oversold territory. A move above the 20 level would be a cause for concern for the bulls but that hasn't happened yet. For now it seems that earnings are still taking a back seat to the daily developments out of Iran. We wonder how long this will go on and can only guess when it stops. Tougher than usual trading environment. Asia higher and Europe lower again. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We had some minor selling to begin the week as the Dow dipped 4 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. Stocks stayed in negative territory for much of the day but it was mainly a sideways session with small losses booked for most major averages. The short term indicators are still overbought for the S&P 500. Waiting to see if the Iran cease-fire gets extended on Wednesday. Stocks remain at the mercy of the next war sound bite but it doesn't seem to have the same effect as it did earlier. I'm still in the camp of waiting for things to return to some kind of normal before making the next trade. Gold dropped $46 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates finished a touch higher. The XAU was off 5 1/3, while GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume for GDX was pretty light. The short term indicators here are still overbought but not extremely so. I'm still considering the GDX May puts for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was higher today but remains short term oversold. It got up to the 20 level during the session but backed off. Not sure exactly what's next for the VIX but I would not be surprised if it simply remains oversold as stocks trend higher in the near term. Plenty of earnings reports out this week. Not much on the economic calendar with the exception of retail sales tomorrow. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the trading week overseas. The market is waiting on the cease-fire deadline for now.

The rally continues unabated as the Dow gained 868 points on pretty heavy volume. It was up over a thousand points during the day. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is rising. The Dow was the leader today which isn't the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had big gains as well to close at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance. The extreme short term overbought condition for the S&P remains. It has been a straight line up since the start of April. Not sure when or how it ends but it has lasted much longer than we expected. We're certainly not going to try and fight it. Remaining on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now as the usual technical indicators just are not working here. Gold was up $67 on the futures. The US dollar was just a touch lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 12 1/2 and GDX added over 2 3/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. I'm still looking at the GDX May puts but am in no hurry to purchase them as we are just rolling into the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX is still moving lower and the market is still moving higher. That fits. The short term indicators here are still very oversold which occurs during strong rallies like the one we are currently in. This techncial condition can persist for a few weeks at times. It is another reason why we have to remain more cautious than usual with any trades for now. Stocks are having a huge bull run that can last longer than you think or end in a hurry. We'll simply wait until market conditions are better for trading in my view. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was pretty much a sideways affair today with most of the major averages posting small gains. The Dow rose 115 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were just about even. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs again. The short term indicators for the S&P remain extremely overbought. Expiration Friday on tap tomorrow. We remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was off about 1 2/3, while GDX dipped 1/8. Volume is still light here. The short term indicators for GDX have started to push sideways. I am now looking at the GDX May puts here. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX is still moving down and is still short term oversold. Everything here seems to say that the rally will have staying power. The market is at the tail end of the positive seasonal period. So perhaps it will continue to push up into May and then we'll have to see what happens. Headline risk has seemed to diminish recently and that is a plus for the trading. I'll remain patient for now as that appears to be the best path to take at this time. Asia and Europe were generally higher. We'll see how expiration Friday fares tomorrow.

The overall market continued higher but the Dow fell 72 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is still leading the way higher and that's bullish. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. They are both moving up in a straight line and now there is no overhead resistance. The short term indicators here on the S&P are still extremely overbought and staying that way. I'm not sure what to say except that the rally from the beginning of the month has been extraordinary. It is quite unusual to have so many days in a row to the upside. Not sure how much longer this can go on. Gold dropped $28 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU fell 9 1/3 and GDX lost 3. Volume remains light here. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. We'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was a touch lower. It remains short term oversold. It can stay this way for an extended period of time during rallies like the one we are seeing right now. I'm remaining on the sidelines to wait for the next technical set up. It is the prudent thing to do with only two days left in the April option cycle. We've moved on after booking yesterdays loss as you always have to keep moving forward in this game. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower overnight. I'll keep watch for the tonights developments.

Another day, another gain as stock indexes continue to rise. The Dow gained 317 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The inflation data came in much lighter than expected. We had a gap higher at the open and never looked back. The NASDAQ is still leading this bull run. As long as that is the case the rally should move forward. Indices are as overbought as they can get or so it seems. When the technical indicators don't work anymore it is time to step aside. The S&P 500 posted another decent gain. The short term indicators are stuck in overbought territory. It is knocking on the door of reaching a new all time high. Stocks markets have been moving straight up for two weeks. I don't know how much longer that can continue. Gold was up almost a hundred bucks today on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 6 1/3, while GDX added 2 points. Volume remains light here. GDX like the overall market is short term overbought and staying that way. I dumped the GDX April puts that I had for a 90% loss. This trade was mismanaged by me about as bad as it gets. It did show a small profit early on but quickly moved the other way. I did not have a stop loss order on it which was another mistake. When the gold shares were acting better than gold itself I still held on to the losing position despite the signs that it was time to hit the exit. The trade should have been closed yesterday when gold came back from its early sell off overnight. There were plenty of chances to get out with a smaller loss but I didn't take them. The only minor saving grace is that I was initially going to take a bigger position and chose a smaller one. Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted. The VIX is still heading lower and remains short term oversold. Sometimes it can stay oversold for weeks and this looks like it could be one of those times. Three days left in the April option cycle and if my brain still works I'll be sitting on the sidelines. As much as I think the puts will work at some point this week, the technical signals that we are getting just are not working right now. We should have seen at least some kind of decent sell off by now if only for a day. But as always the market goes where it wants and knows much more than me. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Stocks start the week off on a positive note as the Dow gained 301 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Even the geo-political news about the war in Iran didn't phase things. However the market is extremely overbought on both a short and midium term basis at this point. It cannot stay that way forever. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a solid gain and at this rate will be reaching new all time highs before the end of the month. The short term indicators for the S&P continue to remain overbought. Do we consider a short term trade with the SPY April puts? I'll think about it overnight. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures but came up from the lows on the session. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU dipped 2 1/8, while GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. My GDX April put trade is on life support. Unless we see some kind of decent decline in the gold shares tomorrow this trade will be a loser. The short term up trend line for GDX was broken today. But it is probably too late to save this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX opened above the 20 level today but reversed and closed backdown to be lower on the day. Its short term indicators remain oversold. The VIX can remain oversold for some time during rallies like the one we find ourselves in right now. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and the Iran conflict remains center stage. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Just hanging around today for the most part although the Dow did drop 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. It was a mixed bag with the NASDAQ posting a gain and the S&P 500 having a small loss. The inflation data came in high but a touch less than expected. But the market is still being held hostage by the war in Iran. Whatever happens with the peace talks over the weekend will determine how we open on Monday. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on the daily indicators. It is overdue now for some kind of drop but in rallies it stays overbought as it has this week. We have option expiration week on tap as well. The SPY April options remain pricey with only a week to go. Gold was off $34 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU was up about 5 1/2 and GDX rose 7/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are still overbought. Gold down and the gold shares up is bullish for the gold shares. My GDX April puts are now showing a modest loss. I'm stuck holding them for now over the weekend. This trade has now turned into a cut the loss proposition depending on the open Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Despite being oversold this indicator implies higher stock prices yet to come. Still below thw 20 level which is bullish for stocks going forward. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. However the news from the peace talks will be center stage as far as where things go from here are concerned. It's anybodies guess what comes out of that. Asia was higher and Europe little changed to finish off the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 276 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in where expected. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent gain. Some of the short term indicators there are now overbought. The short term sell signal that we received from one of our indicators isn't working. That tells us something as well. The market is acting strongly here and any selling that we do see should be short lived. It appears that now declines can be bought. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX ended the session little changed on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought on some of its indicators. The GDX April puts that I purchased yesterday are now back at break-even. We'll see if gold reacts to tomorrows inflation data and take it from there. Not sure that I want to hold this position over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX continued lower today and closed below 20. Its short term indicators are now oversold. They can stay that way during rallies like the one we are in right now. It appears that the technical signs are pointing towards higher prices going forward. However we are still at the mercy of the next headline from the war in Iran. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A cease-fire in the Iran conflict probpted a huge rally today as the Dow soared 1325 on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. There was a huge gap to the upside for most stock indices at the open and the gains were held all session long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are almost overbought. We are getting a sell signal from one of our indicators that we rely on. Perhaps that will come to fruition before the weekend. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Inflation data coming out for the next two sessions. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $70 on the futures but fell from the best levels of the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 2/3, while GDX climbed over 3 1/8. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still tracking sideways with some in overbought territory. I canceled my open order for the GDX April puts overnight as markets were going wild to the upside and I didn't know where the GDX options would open. There was huge gap higher in the gold shares at the open. I placed another order for the GDX puts in the morning and it did get filled. It is showing a slight gain. The idea is to sell them before the weekend after we see the inflation data. The short term technical overbought condition on GDX hopefully works in our favor. But markets can stay overbought for a while sometimes. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap lower today which fits with what we saw in stocks. The short term indicators here are heading lower. The VIX broke and closed below its longer term up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. This implies that stocks will be in rally mode. It is still above the 20 level though. I'm in the next trade now and the management of it will be the key to the outcome. The markets still have above average risk right now so holding on to this position for an extended period of time may not be the best idea. Seven days to go in the April option cycle. Asia and Europe had huge gains overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting around to see what's next out of Iran as the Dow fell 85 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending higher. We traded lower today until the last hour when a rally moved many stocks back to the plus side. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted slight gains. Most of the short term indicators for the S&P are still trending up. Not sure what tomorrow will bring as we are still at the mercy of headline risk. Staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $41 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat to lower. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added almost a point. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are moving sideways with some of them overbought. My open order for the GDX April puts remains out there. Could get filled if we see the gold shares move higher tomorrow. I still like the idea of this trade ahead of the inflation reports. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are turning back up. If they succeed the market will head lower. However the markets are simply waiting to see if the United States starts bombing Iran tonight. That is what the near term trade boils down to. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade overseas. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A positive start to the new week as the Dow rose 165 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trending higher. The trading day had a distinct sideways feel to it as the market waits for the next headline from the war in Iran. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are still heading up. Not sure what comes next here. Inflation data due on Thursday and Friday of this week. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates remains flat. It seems that most markets are in a wait and see approach for now. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX shed around 3/4. Volume was light which seems to be the theme for today. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. I did place an open order for the GDX April puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order will be filled ahead of the inflation data later this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with an up market. When price action and the VIX don't match usually the VIX gets it right. The short term indicators for the VIX continue to track sideways. Today was a slow moving, not well attended day for stocks. Waiting for the next sound bite out of Iran. Europe and Asia were mixed with some exchanges closed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Volatility remains the name of the game for now as the Dow fell 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is in the process of trying to turn around. There was a huge gap lower for stocks at the open only to be followed by a run back up to positive territory in the next hour. Pretty much sideways after that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had one day upside reversals. Advantage to the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving up but some are beginning to head sideways. Depending on what happens over the long weekend it's anyones guess how Monday turn out. I'm still staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold lost $111 on the futures. The US dollar was higehr and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dipped 2 1/3 and GDX lost 1 1/3 on average volume. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are still moving up while others have stalled mirroring the overall technical market action. The fact that gold itself took a big hit and the gold shares held up rather wall is a plus for the precious metal bulls. I'm still considering the GDX April puts as the next trade but will be looking at things over the weekend which may change my mind. It is a trickier than usual trading environment at the moment due to the increased volatility in most markets. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are trending down. The VIX closed below its short term up trend line. An extra day this weekend to go over the charts and try to figure where we go from here. The market remains in headline risk mode. There's still two weeks left in the April option cycle so we will try and get something done. Asia and Europe were both lower, with India and England bucking the trend. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

Follow through upside today as the Dow gained 224 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The NASDAQ led the way again and that is positive for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a nice gain although it did drop back from the highs on the session. The short term indicators here are moving up with room to go. It does fell like we've seen the worst and stocks can find some footing here. However president Trump is giving a speech about the Iran war tonight so anything goes after that. Stocks are still at the mercy of the next sound bite. As we have seen lately it can get things going in either direction. Gold was up $116 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 15 1/4, while GDX added 3 7/8. Volume was good to the upside again. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up. Not yet overbought here. We missed the gold share calls here. I am now looking at the GDX April puts as my next trade. Not in a hurry to put this trade on so I will probably let tomorrow go by and look at it next week. Unless we see another big day for the gold shares tomorrow. If GDX gets up to 100 I'll be attempting to purchase those April puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is right on its short term up trend line from the past month. The short term indicators here are still trying to move lower from the mid-range level. If the VIX can make it down through its short term up trend line it would be a plus for the bulls. However there is still the longer term up trend line to contend with at the 21 level. One thing at a time though. Only a day left in the shortened trading week and we still have the question of who will want to hold stocks over what is now going to be a long weekend? We'll see how markets react to the Trump speech and go from there. Asia and Europe climbed higher in last nights trade. I'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

A huge rally today as signs that the war with Iran is coming to a close. The Dow roared ahead by 1125 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but could stall and turn here at the zero line if this rise continues. We don't know what will happen next. Usually in extended declines or bear markets you get some kind of big rally out of nowhere and we saw that today. The key will be if we see some follow through to the upside or not. Things could just as easily head back down tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way as it gained almost 4% and that's a plus. The S&P 500 was up 184 points in a day. The short term indicators there are now moving up. It certainly has the feel that the decline is over. We'll see. Gold was up 157 points on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 24 3/4 and GDX climbed 5 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher now as well. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as that ship has sailed. My thinking now is to wait for a short term overbought condition and try the GDX puts again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and most of its short term indicators are moving down. The longer term up trend line for the VIX comes in at 21. What happens there will tell us whether the decline has ended or not. We are still over four points away from there though so there is room for the VIX to drop and stocks to rise. An interesting day on the street to be sure. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Asia lower and Europe higher again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag to begin a short trading week with the Dow higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index rose 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ is still the weakest of the bunch and that's a negative. A late, last half hour rise kept things from being worse. The S&P 500 had a modest loss. The short term indicators here are stuck in oversold territory. You could begin to make a case for some kind of oversold bounce to occur but just as easily say things will fall apart with the summation index crossing the zero line. Our question remains who will want to own stocks at the end of this week heading into a long weekend? No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU dipped 3 3/4, while GDX was flat. Volume was about average. The short term indicators on GDX are starting to move sideways. I did place an order overnight for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. No hurry to get filled on this idea for a trade but if things collapse I would like to have an order out there to possibly get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today and its short term indicators are beginning to stall. Still not completely overbought here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Not a lot of economic data due this week. Februarys retail sales on Wednesday and the jobs report will come out when the markets are closed on Friday. We are still being held hostage to whatever happens with the war in Iran. Europe higher and Asia lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Still heading down as the Dow fell 793 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It is heading for the now inevitable crossing of the zero line to the downside. Stocks will continue to drop, we just don't know how far. Unless the Iran war ends all of a sudden but we are not counting on that. The NASDAQ is still leading the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 dropped over 100 points again. The short term indicators here are oversold and staying that way. The next area of support for the S&P comes in around 6100. However we are not going to try and predict the bottom at this time. Option premiums remain high. Gold was up $134 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 12 1/4, while GDX added 3 1/2. Volume was good. Today was the first time in a while that we saw the gold shares higher when the overall market was lower. Take note. It appears that the decline in gold is over. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move up. We will be looking for any near term pullback in GDX to try and purchase the April calls. This looks to be the next trade. The fact that gold itself recovered what it lost yesterday is a plus for the precious metal bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is now above 30. It usually doesn't stay that high for long but with the current technical condition of the market, who knows? The short term indicators here are into overbought territory. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as we try and come up with the best trading scenario moving forward. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Also a short trading week on tap as exchanges will be closed on Friday the 3rd. Asia was mixed and Europe down to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stocks headed back down today as the Dow fell 469 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to heading lower. The fact that it is close to the zero line must be taken into account. Things will get ugly if we don't see a turnaround. The NASDAQ led the way lower again, this time dropping over 500 points. The S&P 500 lost over a hundred. The short term indicators on the S&P turned back down in oversold territory. It closed at a new low for the year. The bears are in charge. Tomorrow should be interesting. Who will want to own stocks ahead of the weekend? Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $191. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU dipped 12 1/2 and GDX lost 3 3/4. This time volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX turned lower in oversold territory following the overall market. What we would like to see is the gold shares falling to a new low for the chance to try the GDX April calls. Markets rarely cooperate however. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. No telling where the VIX is going next. But if we see the summation index plow through the zero line, the VIX will be headed higher. As I stated earlier we have to be aware of this possibility due to the current location of the summation index. It is usually nowhere near the zero line. When it goes through that line things fall apart. Things need to turnaround in a hurry to avoid this. Anything is possible when markets are held hostage to the next sound bite. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving higher today as the Dow was up 305 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. Once again the NASDAQ was the leader. The S&P 500 had another modest gain. It has fallen back from its best levels on the day for three days in a row now. The short term indicators are moving up but slowly. I'm not sure if the S&P is going to turn higher from here or it is just stalling before a collapse. The zero line on the summation index is within striking distance. So what happens now in the next few days will be the key to where we are going. The market is still at the mercy of the next headline. Gold was up $114 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 8 3/4, while GDX was up 2 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up but are still on the oversold side of the ledger. Looks too late for the GDX calls now as we will have to change strategy. We'll now look for the GDX April puts when it gets short term overbought. We will be looking for a retest of the recent lows. All subject to change though as we wait for the gold market to provide some clues. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators here have now drifted back lower. No conviction either way on the indicators. The longer term up trend line that began in January for the VIX is still in effect. Simply waiting on what's next for the markets as the week goes by. Looking for the next signal to trade. Options premiums remain high. Patience for now. Asia and Europe were higher as hopes for an end to the Iran conflict gains steam. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Bouncing around today as we opened with a gap lower and traded sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 had a small loss. The short term indicators there are still oversold and now heading sideways. We remain at the mercy of the next Iran headline. We'll stick to the sidelines for now. Gold was off four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was average. Still short term oversold for GDX. We are looking at the GDX April calls as the next trade but will wait on that for now. There is still a chance that stocks move lower from here and they would take the gold shares with them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are trying to move up. If they do we'll see lower prices. We are in a tricky trading environment due to the overall geo-political background which includes war. Option premiums remain high because of volatility and the beginning of the next option cycle. So I will try and remain patient for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night with the exception of the DAX. I'll be keeping an eye on things overnight.

Volatility works both ways as the Dow gained 631 points on pretty heavy volume. It was up over a thousand early on. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Headline risk remains the theme as whatever happens in Iran takes center stage. Tough trading envirionment to be sure. Both the Dow and NASDAQ led the way higher. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn up from oversold territory. So there is a chance that stocks turn around and the summation index doesn't make it through the zero line. But there's a chance that is does too as we are getting closer to it every day. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Premiums are high along with uncertainty. Gold lost $161 on the futures. It did finish well up from the lows on the session. The daily candlestick chart here looks like appears to show that a low has been put in. We'll see. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 1/2, while GDX was up 3 1/8. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move higher from deeply oversold. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive sign. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it wasn't close to being able to be filled. I still like this idea and am going to try to put it on at some point in the April option cycle. The short term technicals for gold itself remain extremely oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit lower after being all over the place today. The short term indicators here are beginning to trend sideways. Not exactly sure what to expect here next for the VIX. The market remains hostage to the next revelation on Iran. There is nothing wrong with waiting things out as having no position is still a position. We do like trying the gold share calls at some point in the near future. Asia down and Europe up to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.