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Monday, April 13, 2026

Stocks start the week off on a positive note as the Dow gained 301 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Even the geo-political news about the war in Iran didn't phase things. However the market is extremely overbought on both a short and midium term basis at this point. It cannot stay that way forever. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a solid gain and at this rate will be reaching new all time highs before the end of the month. The short term indicators for the S&P continue to remain overbought. Do we consider a short term trade with the SPY April puts? I'll think about it overnight. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures but came up from the lows on the session. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU dipped 2 1/8, while GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. My GDX April put trade is on life support. Unless we see some kind of decent decline in the gold shares tomorrow this trade will be a loser. The short term up trend line for GDX was broken today. But it is probably too late to save this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX opened above the 20 level today but reversed and closed backdown to be lower on the day. Its short term indicators remain oversold. The VIX can remain oversold for some time during rallies like the one we find ourselves in right now. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and the Iran conflict remains center stage. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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