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Monday, March 23, 2026

Volatility works both ways as the Dow gained 631 points on pretty heavy volume. It was up over a thousand early on. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Headline risk remains the theme as whatever happens in Iran takes center stage. Tough trading envirionment to be sure. Both the Dow and NASDAQ led the way higher. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn up from oversold territory. So there is a chance that stocks turn around and the summation index doesn't make it through the zero line. But there's a chance that is does too as we are getting closer to it every day. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Premiums are high along with uncertainty. Gold lost $161 on the futures. It did finish well up from the lows on the session. The daily candlestick chart here looks like appears to show that a low has been put in. We'll see. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 1/2, while GDX was up 3 1/8. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move higher from deeply oversold. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive sign. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it wasn't close to being able to be filled. I still like this idea and am going to try to put it on at some point in the April option cycle. The short term technicals for gold itself remain extremely oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit lower after being all over the place today. The short term indicators here are beginning to trend sideways. Not exactly sure what to expect here next for the VIX. The market remains hostage to the next revelation on Iran. There is nothing wrong with waiting things out as having no position is still a position. We do like trying the gold share calls at some point in the near future. Asia down and Europe up to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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