Friday, March 20, 2026
Another day of liquidation as the Dow fell 443 points on extremely heavy expiration volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within two days and today satisfies that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500, which lost 100 points today, is short term oversold and staying there which is never a good sign. The 200 day average did not hold. The next area of support is far away at 6100. As the summation index heads towards the zero line it is possible that things fall apart and the S&P makes it down to that level. But it is not a certainty. Options premiums are already high as we roll into the April option cycle. The puts are still looking like the way to go with regards to the SPY. Gold was off $103. The dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 13 points, while GDX lost 2 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Support at 82 didn't hold so the next level that we are looking at is 75. I did place an open order for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. GDX is getting so blown out to the downside it looks like an opportunity for a short term trade. But that doesn't mean that it can't just simply continue lower. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back up today and its short term indicators have turned higher. If the VIX keeps moving up stocks will keep moving down. The market is in an interesting place at the moment. Opportunity is out there but the risks are high. I'll be checking all the charts this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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