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Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Sellers returned as the Dow fell 768 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The inflation data came in hotter than expected. The Fed left rates alone which was expected. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the worst case scenario. The S&P 500 is now testing the low set on Friday and is just about at its 200 day moving average. So if things don't hold up here it could get ugly. The short term indicators on the S&P are oversold and staying there. Not sure what would bring buyers back with the exception of an end to the Iran conflict. But no one knows when that will be. Gold got clobbered with the futures down $163. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 23 3/4 and GDX lost 5 2/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX are oversold and staying that way. Even though we never got filled trying to buy the GDX March puts here the analysis was still correct. We will get other opportunities down the road. Once again, gold and the gold shares had a parabolic advance. That cannot not last forever. It always ends badly as the excesses have to be driven out. The precious metals complex is in that phase now. It will probably take a while. Rallies can be sold and puts can be purchased on advances. When the Iran war ends gold will most likely move up and that will be the chance to try the puts again. In theory at least. Support for GDX here comes in at the 82 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go higher now. Some of the short term indicators have turned up and have plenty of room to run. This could potentially spell big trouble for stocks as the summation index is heading towards the zero line. The index is still over 1000 points away but it can drop sharply at times. Things will unravel if the summation index makes it through that line. It doesn't happen very often but we have to be aware of the condition the market is in at the moment. Asia up and Europe down overnight. We'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

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