The expected bounce showed up today as the Dow gained 387 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. We did get a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with in the next two sessions and today takes care of that. It could have been better though as stocks markets closed off of their highs for the session. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up but remain oversold. Now we have to figure out if today is the beginning of something sustained to the upside or just another oversold bounce. I certainly do not know for sure. You can still make a case for either way. With only four days left in the March option cycle, it appears that we'll remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options. Inflation data on Wednesday along with the Fed no doubt increases the risk. Plus the inevitable Iran war headlines make for a tougher than usual trading environment. Gold dropped forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 3 7/8 and GDX added a point. Volume was average. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is something that we haven't seen in a while. GDX is still short term oversold. I did want to own some GDX March puts ahead of the data and Fed on Wednesday but it looks like that trade isn't going to be worth the risk. Unless the war ends tonight and we see a big rise in gold and the gold shares tomorrow we'll have to remain on the sidelines here too. Perhaps a trading opportunity will present itself this week but it would have to be very short term in nature. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators that we follow on the VIX are still hanging around the mid-range level. Still above the 20 level here. The shorter term up trend line here has been broken. We are going to have to see how this week plays out going forward and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.