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Monday, May 04, 2026

Some weakness to begin the week as the Dow led the way lower with a loss of 557 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought but are trying to roll over. Earnings are still in the picture for this week but the main event will be the employment report due out on Friday. I'm not considering any SPY options trades at the moment. Gold got slammed and dropped $114 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 5 3/8, while GDX slid 1 1/2. Volume was light. Considering the drop in gold itself, the gold shares held up rather well. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold and staying there. I'm now looking out to the GDX June calls. Considering the above average open interest in the GDX May calls it doesn't look like GDX will get much above the 90 level by option expiration next week if it even gets that far at all. GDX is also in the process of testing the longer term up trend line in the 85 area. If it doesn't hold that will be another negative for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. Some of the short term indicators here are now heading higher. Not sure what's coming next on the VIX. The market was fighting higher oil prices today and is still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict headline. It is also still short term overbought and that condition has gone on for too long already. Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.

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