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Friday, May 01, 2026

We started the day with a gap higher only to move sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow though ended in the red as it lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market fared much better with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closing at records. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 closed down from its best levels on the session and remains short term overbought. The daily candlestick chart here has a shooting star for today which would imply lower prices on Monday. We'll see. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost over 4 3/4 and GDX shed around 1 1/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators on GDX remain in the oversold zone. I am considering the GDX May calls but there is a short term down trend line still in place here. Not to mention the gold shares had a poor day when gold itself didn't do much and the overall market was higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and is still short term oversold. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. We made it through the week with some of the major averages closing at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance and the bulls are in charge. That said we are entering an unfavorable seasonal period in general for stocks. But we certainly don't know if that will hold true this time around or when any sustained selling would begin. I'll continue to focus on the short term trading ideas. We'll go over the charts in the next couple of days to try and figure something out for the May options cycle. Asia was mixed and much of Europe closed on holiday to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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