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Friday, February 13, 2026

Up and down today with not much ground gained or lost when it all was finished. The Dow rose 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Inflation data came in a touch lighter than expected. After a brief early dip, stocks spent the first half of the day moving higher and the second half moving lower. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 finished with the slightest of a gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. We are almost to the point of a short term buy signal on one of our indicators for the S&P but not there yet. It does imply that weakness can be bought on Tuesday but we will have to go over all the charts this weekend to get a better picture. Gold was up $103 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU gained 21 1/2 and GDX climbed 5 1/2. Volume was good heading back to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up at the mid-range level. In retrospect selling the GDX puts yesterday was the right decision. The question now is do we try this trade again with only 4 days left in the February option cycle? It's something to ponder over the next three days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today and is still above the 20 level. Its short term indicators are heading sideways. Not sure where it goes from here. A holiday weekend on tap for the US. Some markets will be closed next week for holidays in Asia. We may perhaps see some thin or skewed trading. I'll be going over things this weekend but any option trade next week would be of high risk with only four days to go before expiration. That said, there will be opportunities. Asia was lower and Europe mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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