Thursday, July 21, 2016
Lower today as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading up. Still overbought all the way around for the major stock indices. The small stocks held up relatively better today so there is no reason for concern with regards to the uptrend. It remains in place and there is nothing in the way of higher prices. GE was off about 20 cents on good volume. The earnings out tomorrow should provide movement in the stock. I don't know what to expect there. Gold bounced back a bit today. The precious metal futures gained a dozen as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX added about 7/8. Volume was above average. My opinion here is that gold and the gold shares taking a break here is a good thing for the longer term trend higher. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Again, this is the first week of a 5 week option cycle and there is no rush to do anything. It has a summer doldrums feel to it and tomorrow should be more of the same. We've got the Fed next week but I would not expect any surprises there either. Patience is key at the moment. We'll wait for some kind of set up before taking on the next trade, possibly in the beginning of August at this rate. Japan and Chine were higher overnight, while Europe was mixed with small moves. We'll close out the week tomorrow.