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Thursday, June 30, 2016

The market continues to rally as the Dow gained 235 points on good volume to close out the month.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We are short term overbought no so I decided to hold onto my losing SPY July put trade for another day in hopes of at least some pullback.  This trade is going to be a 70%-80% loser.  It looks like we are going to make a run at new all time highs at this rate.  What we are seeing here is a classic V bottom and I certainly didn't expect that.  This trade felt wrong from the start and that is something to put in my memory for the next time.  GE was up 7/8 on good volume.  This has been a straight up move of over 2 points this week.  That simply rarely happens in this stock.  I do not know the reason.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU gained about 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm frustrated yet again at another losing trade.  One of the mistakes here was my usual not getting out early.  You've got to listen to the market and for some reason sellers disappeared in a hurry after the 2 day debacle.  I recognized it but did not act on it.  But the market doesn't care.  The game rolls on and so do I.  We've got a log holiday weekend coming up and the beginning of the month tomorrow.  I'd expect more inflows to the market but with the overbought condition perhaps we'll see some selling on Friday.  The weekly candlestick charts for the S&P 500 have turned from bearish to bullish.  I'll take a guess at new all time highs here before the July option expiration.  Is it too late to buy some July calls then?  Perhaps not but I would not advise chasing things now.  Maybe if we come off of the overbought condition you could give it a try.  I think that the next event for the market will be the employment report but that isn't due for another week.  Next week will be a short trading week as well.  With the summation index now trending up, expect higher prices going forward.  The market reaction to the vote in England was a one time event and not a lasting market issue.  The comeback this week let's you know that.  Let my losing trade be a reminder to you how difficult it is to try and trade during a headline risk environment.  Markets were higher in Asia and Europe overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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