Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Continuing higher as the Dow powered ahead by 285 points on OK volume. The advance/declines were about 6 to 1 to the plus side. This should turn the summation index back up. I was expecting a bounce back but this is more than that. I did place an overnight order for the SPY July puts and it was filled as the S&P went through the 2050 level. However the market just kept on going. This trade will probably be a loser and already is. My prognosis for the 50% retracement followed by another decline is wrong. There are no sellers as they sold out on the first couple of sessions after the English vote. Perhaps that was the washout and I missed seeing it. The shorts are getting squeezed to death now. GE was up almost 2/3 on the same volume as yesterday. Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares still appear to be in a trading range to me. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A VIX break of the 16 level and close beneath there will put an end to the decline in my opinion. It has been a very volatile 4 days in the stock market. The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and have plenty of room to run. I'm stuck in a losing trade and probably the best idea would be to simply get out tomorrow. Unless there is a decent decline on Thursday, that is what I should do. My entry obviously could have been better but it would have only made for a smaller loss. This trade is a mistake from the start. There is a long holiday weekend approaching and there is no reason to stew over a losing idea. I obviously did not recognize that the market was sold out and it's bounced back stronger than I imagined. Markets around the globe rallied strongly overnight. We will end the month of June and the first half of the year tomorrow. I'd expect to see some more upside follow through to todays action unless there is some kind of overnight surprise. We'll keep an eye on things as usual.