Friday, June 03, 2016
Lower on a weak jobs number today as the Dow lost 31 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. Down almost 150 in the early going, the market made a comeback for the remainder of the session. The summation index continues to the upside and the short term technicals remain overbought. We have sold off at the open the past 3 days only to make a comeback each time. Sooner or later we are going to get going. The question is, which way? I'd still like to see a run to the 2125 level on the S&P before considering some puts. But today the overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change. The volume still remains an issue as well. GE was off 1/8 and the volume is still light. Gold soared as the US dollar got clobbered on the poor employment numbers. The precious metal futures were up over $30 as the dollar dropped a point and a half. The XAU rose 8 3/8, while GDX added 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares are still in a trading range but after today it appears they may be on the verge of breaking out to the upside again. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 weeks left in the June option cycle. The risk increases with each passing day but I'm hoping an opportunity will present itself. The market has had chances to sell off this week and yet buyers have come in. That tells me that perhaps higher prices are on the way. I'm not saying it will be some kind of explosive rally. However it's possible that we could grind our way higher into the expiration. That's a guess as usual. The volume remains light here, so no rally can be trusted as yet. Maybe if we get weakness early next week I'll try the June SPY calls going into the Fed meeting. But I'll have to consider the possibilities over the weekend. I would like to try something in the June option cycle because I think once the Fed is out of the way, the summer doldrums could start. If the volume lately is any indication, it will be a long and boring affair for a couple months. We'll see. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.