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Friday, June 24, 2016

Crash.  That's about all I can say here as everything that was thought to be true yesterday wasn't.  The market voted wrong for a change as England did decide to leave the European Union.  This had repercussions around the world and a stock market bloodbath ensued.  The technicals don't matter in a headline driven situation that we find ourselves in at the moment.  The Dow got clobbered and lost 611 points on blowout heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The is no underlying support in the S&P so it is hard to tell how low this thing will go.  Usually it's a lot lower than you think.  I'm on the sidelines but I do have some ideas.  GE lost 1 1/3 on extremely heavy volume.  Gold rallied along with the US dollar.  The flight to safety trade that I thought was being taken off yesterday returned with a vengeance.  The precious metal futures were up over $50, while the US dollar added more than 2 points.  Incredible moves in one day.  The XAU rose 3 1/3 and GDX climbed 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares are trying to break out of their trading range.  Another day like today should do it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose in hindsight the best move today would have been to simply buy some SPY July puts at the open.  It's probably too late for any kind of trade like that going forward.  We'll get follow through to the downside on Monday morning and then perhaps some type of rally attempt.  That is usually the case in market panic attacks like the on today.  We have seen this before.  Perhaps I'll take another stab at a short term bounce trade next week.  But the timing would have to be impeccable and the risk is now extremely elevated.  Not to mention the option premiums are very inflated due to the massive amount of volatility that we are now seeing.  Well, you don't make any money on the sidelines but you don't lose any either.  Today at the open there was a gap down and then a feeble rally attempt.  That feeble rally provided the opportunity to buy some index puts.  I simply was not ready to take advantage of that when I should have.  Three weeks left in the July option cycle and it looks like there won't be any summer doldrums anytime soon.  Traders will have all weekend to think about the ramifications of what happened today.  Stocks got crushed and it could just be the beginning.  Charts look ugly around the globe.  I'm going to have to take a very close look at what happened and try to come up with some kind of idea on how to trade it.  One thing for sure is that you will have to be very nimble and not get attached to any trade.  Take profits quick because we are still in store for some wild swings in the days ahead.  The European markets actually started to come back from the brink before they closed today.  Not so here in the United States and that should carry over to Monday morning.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.


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James said...

Thank you