Wednesday, June 15, 2016
A one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 34 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index continues lower. The Fed had nothing new to say and we got a slight and brief move higher after the announcement. But the market came apart in the final half hour. The short term indicators remain oversold. I did get rid of the SPY June calls today but my exit was lousy. The gain was 35% but it could have been at least double that if I were more nimble. However the short term trades aren't my best efforts and I suppose I'm thankful it wasn't a loss. We are still due for some better bounce than we got today but with only 2 days to go in the June option cycle my best decision will be to move out to July. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good. We came off of the highs here as well. It looks like GE was not the precursor that I was hoping it to be. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar fell today and it was lower before the Fed statement. The XAU rose almost 4 points and GDX added a point. Volume was above average. The gold shares have still not broken out of the trading range that began in the beginning of May. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The short term trades can do that to you. I'm also disappointed once again with my execution of the trade. Too much fear and greed for me today. Doesn't matter now though and you've got to keep going. The bounce today was weak and that is not a good sign for the bulls. The final half hour could be expiration related. That's a guess as usual. My ideal scenario for now would be a light volume rise in an attempt to purchase some SPY July puts. However with the full July option cycle to go, the premiums are expensive. The weekly candlestick charts for the major stock indices have a bearish pattern for now. We will have to see where the week closes out. As of now the weekly technical indicators have rolled over as well. So we'll see. Foreign markets rallied overnight. The fact that the US couldn't follow them is a negative as well. I think that it's a time to be cautious.