Monday, June 27, 2016
Downside follow through today as the Dow shed another 260 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. Not completely oversold on the daily technical indicators for the S&P 500 but just about. There is some support at the 1950 level and more at 1850. I suppose you could try and play a bounce at those levels or simply wait for a bounce and then try some puts. Premiums are elevated and they move fast in a market like this. There will be opportunities but taking advantage of them is another matter. The VIX was lower today despite a huge drop and I have no explanation for that. Perhaps because the decline was not as steep. But we're still heading down. GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy. We're at the 200 day moving average here. Gold was up $5 on the futures but was higher early. The US dollar had another good day. The haven trade is on. The XAU and GDX rose 1/3. Volume was a bit above average. In times like these everything gets sold to meet margin calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still dealing with the fall out from the vote in England and I don't know when this will be fully priced in. The trend is down and we've dropped over 100 S&P points in 2 days. Treacherous times. I think the next trade will be to wait for some kind of bounce and then try the SPY July puts. When that bounce will come, I have no idea. Indices in Asia stopped dropping last night but that didn't mean anything in the US. European markets were clobbered again. I don't want to completely throw out the technical indicators but we're in an extreme event driven environment. The prudent thing to do is probably wait until we see some kind of washout. When that will happen, I have no idea. It could be sometime this week but it could take even longer. There is no point in trying to be a hero and pick the bottom. What I will be looking for though is a sharp short covering rally that comes out of nowhere. That is the opportunity that will give you a chance to try the SPY July puts. In downtrends like this these rallies spring up out of nowhere and just as quickly disappear. That will be the trade that I am looking for. We'll keep an eye on the action overnight and see if we just keep dropping tomorrow.