Friday, June 10, 2016
Well is looks like the selling wasn't met by buying today. The Dow lost 119 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. This could start to move the summation index sideways. There was wholesale selling all the way around today. We haven't seen that in a while. I'm not sure what to make of it. The short term indicators have now all rolled over for the major stock indices. It appears that my scenario for new all time highs was wrong. Or at least put off for now. The VIX is at the top of its recent range, so there is a possibility that today was the worst of it. But that's a guess as usual. GE was off 20 cents on what passes for average volume today. Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures despite a good session for the US dollar. The XAU fell about 2 points and GDX shed 1/3 as the gold shares went the other way. Volume was light for lately. Not sure what to make of the action here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Expiration week is upon us starting Monday. It looks like my upside bias prognosis is in jeopardy after todays selling in the stock market. But we'll see. We didn't get the final hour run for the exits that you normally see in an extended decline. However we also could simply just be at the beginning of a downtrend. There is an uptrend line from February that comes in at around 2085 on the S&P 500. That could be a spot to try the SPY June calls on Monday for a short term trade if we get there. Or it could be the last line in the sand before we see an extended drop. Looking at the short term technical indicators has me thinking that perhaps the calls are not the right idea here. However things could also simply turn around as the market usually does what will frustrate the most. I suppose I could waffle back and forth about what to do here but that is a task for me to do over the weekend. Overseas markets were weak as well as oil overnight. Perhaps we are back to taking our cues from oil again. We've got the Fed next week and its anybody's guess as to the markets reaction on Wednesday. So there will be plenty to think about over the next couple of days. For now its Friday afternoon and time for a rest.