Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Lower again today as the Dow fell 57 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow but the TRAN got clobbered today. Getting to short term overbought on the major stock indices. I did go over the charts again last night and checked my indicators. I decided to place an overnight order for the SPY June calls that would be filled if we got low enough today. We did and my order was filled. It is showing a small profit. This trade is fraught with risk as the time remaining is only 3 days. I'm expecting some sort of bounce out of the Fed but I could be wrong. The trend is down. GE was up almost 2/3 on good volume. News on the stock was the driver there. Now if GE happens to be a precursor for the overall market, the SPY June call trade will work. Wishful thinking on my part. Gold was up slightly and the US dollar had another good session as well. It appears to be the flight to safety trade is back. The gold shares are not following though as the XAU lost 2 points, while GDX fell 1/2. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The trend has turned down for stocks but we haven't had a complete breakdown yet. It appears we are back to the event driven environment with the threat of England exiting the European Union. Unlike the Greece fiasco of last year, there will actually be a vote of the people to decide. But this vote is over a week away and the markets are not simply going to stop trading until it is decided. I'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow and probably should exit this current trade if I get the chance to show a profit. Volume has picked up as we've headed lower in the past few days. That is bearish. I'm still looking at the SPY July puts. I'll possibly enter that trade if we do see some sort of upside in the next few days. But we could simply continue to head lower as well. However the VIX is over extended and did start to turn back down today. That could change tomorrow. The trading is never clear cut or easy. The small stocks have not been leaders on the downside so far. If they were to take the lead, I would think that a serious decline would be in order. I could be wrong. All foreign markets were weak last night as fear has taken over for now. All eyes and ears will be on the Fed. We'll see how the markets react to that.