Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Quite the bounce today as the Dow climbed 269 points on good volume. The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading lower but another day like today would probably change that. The VIX moved sharply down as well. Could that be it for the decline? Everybody wants to know the answer to that question. It could be but I don't really think so. There was some significant technical damage done on the over 100 S&P point drop. I think we can get to around 2050 on the S&P. That will be the area to watch in my opinion. I'll be looking to try the SPY July puts there and I have an open order in for those overnight. 2050 would be around a 50% retracement of the 2 day decline. That is the game plan for now. GE was up 2/3 on above average volume. The 200 day moving average has held for now. Gold was off about $10 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well. Profit taking on the haven trade? Perhaps. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses. The volume was a bit above average. The gold shares are overdue for a rest. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Crazy moves in the market but opportunities as well. One less day in the July option cycle due to the holiday on the 4th. Not much attention given to the final GDP revision today as the volatility is the main driver for now. We won't get the employment numbers until a week from Friday. Obviously there is a lot of time until that. There will be a report on the banks from the Fed after the close tomorrow. That could be a market mover. We are still hostage to any kind of news from Europe as well. The short term technical indicators are oversold for the major stock indices but some of them have turned back up. It's still a time to be cautious. My thinking here remains that we will get down to the 1950 level on the S&P 500 and perhaps find some support there. But I could be wrong and often am. I plan on getting some SPY July puts at some point in the next few days and then sell them when we get to 1950. But naturally that idea could change depending on market conditions. European markets bounced overnight as well. Asia was in a holding pattern. We'll see what tomorrow brings.