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Thursday, June 16, 2016

It was a one day reversal back to the upside today as the Dow gained 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  We were down over 150 points early on and made it all the way back and then some.  Even a blind person can see that volatility is back.  The summation index continues lower.  Todays bounce was what I was looking for yesterday.  The S&P 500 bounced back from the 2050 level, which was a nice round number.  There was money to be made in the short term call option trading today.  I did not take advantage of it.  After yesterdays closing decline we were still in the short term oversold condition.  Perhaps I will have to rethink my opinion of my short term trading tactics.  GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold and the gold shares had a one day reversal to the downside.  The precious metal futures were up over $25 and ended down $5 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar bounced all over the place today but finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX dropped around 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The next obvious question is was today the end of the recent decline or the start of a bounce in which to get short?  I wish I knew the answer.  I think that it's too early to tell actually.  With the expiration happening tomorrow it is hard to tell what to make of the price action in my opinion.  The summation index is still moving down and we'll take our cues from that for now.  Some of the short term technical indicators have stopped going down but they remain in oversold territory.  At this stage I'm going to let tomorrow pass and hopefully figure things out over the weekend.  The VIX had a huge spike this week so perhaps the worst is over.  We do have the lingering headline event of England and the European Union to deal with.  We'll certainly see markets react once the votes are counted.  But that's a week away.  Foreign markets were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow. 

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