Wednesday, June 22, 2016
It was a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow shed 49 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. The technical condition of the market hasn't changed. We are still awaiting the vote in England on Thursday. That will make for some interesting trading for Friday. But really this is just a market held hostage to headline risk and it gets a bit ridiculous. I would not be making any substantial trades one way or the other ahead of the results. Regardless of the voting outcome, I'll be glad when it is out of the way. GE was off 1/8 or so on OK volume. The short term technicals here are starting to roll over. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares remain in a long trading range that began in the beginning of April. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The small stocks continue to be under performers and that isn't bullish in my view. Something else that I've noticed recently is the elevated level of the VIX. The thing is the VIX has been higher but we really haven't seen any huge price moves. I do not know what that implies but it isn't the usual action. The European markets have had a nice run up over the past 5 trading sessions. Maybe they know something we don't. My feeling is that tomorrow will be a waiting game around the world. I'll be trying my best not to make any stupid moves ahead of the English vote.