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Tuesday, December 06, 2011

The Dow gained 52 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We were up over 100 but fell back in the final hour. The short term overbought condition remains in place and we are moving to medium term overbought as well. Overdue now for some type of decline. I'm not saying it will be a dramatic drop like we saw recently but something to consolidate the gains and relieve the overbought condition. We'll see. GE rose 1/3 on good volume. There was some kind of analyst upgrade for the stock as the excuse for the rise. We've been kind of moving in a straight line up here on GE and that certainly can't last. The GE calls are still in the black and plenty of time left. I have a target in mind and we aren't there yet. Gold was down a couple bucks on the futures after being much lower. We rallied in the aftermarket. The US dollar bounced around and finished about unchanged. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX and GG were both up around a buck and NEM rose 3/4. Volume was light. May have missed the chance to get the calls here as we filled in the gap at $50 on ABX. However the Gold/XAU ratio is not near the buy zone and we aren't oversold as of yet. I would still like to try the gold share calls on weakness if we get any. Probably best to go out to January, since there are only 8 days left in the December option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It still looks to me as if we are putting in a minor top here on the stock indices and the Dow transports were negative today. They are sometimes a leader of the overall market. I have no OEX trades in mind for now but would consider getting some calls for expiration week if we see some near term weakness. However the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. I'm going to try and remain patient for the gold shares. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

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