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Tuesday, November 14, 2006

The Dow was up 86 points to a new high today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The market sold off early in the day and then roared back to the upside. I guess there is a lot of money to be put to work out there. The inflation report was favorable but retail sales were weak. If anything it looks like deflation by the report today. But that's another story. I did not take any position in the OEX but I am thinking about getting short tomorrow before the release of the Fed minutes. We will be overbought tomorrow. Now we could stay overbought as we have before. It's risky. Gold lost a bit of ground today and the XAU was off a point and a half. I did put in an order for NEM calls. However the charts do not show a definitive buy signal. We are not completely oversold. This potential trade was a case of me just wanting to put a trade on for the sake of making a trade in expiration week. Yes, it could work out but there isn't a good basis for the trade. There were some things in its favor on the short term indicators. But it could just as well not work. I canceled the order. It would have eventually been filled. It very well may have been a winner. We'll find out later in the week. There are 3 days until expiration. Risk is high. I still might try something but it will have to be quick. Mentally I'm getting tired from watching the markets all day. But there will be time to take it easy next week, which will be slow with the Thanksgiving holiday. I am doing the best I can to control myself here and not do anything stupid. It isn't easy...

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