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Sunday, October 31, 2004

Sunday afternoon. The dollar looks weaker as do the stock index futures. The ABX short trade is stupid. Yes, there is a divergence but I gotta be honest with myself. I did that trade after hearing somebody on CNBC say that gold had reached a top. I never do stupid things like that and I honestly don't know why I did it at the time. It's totally foolish. Yes, ABX rallied on light volume on friday and that isn't bullish. But I am actually waiting for a pullback to get long ABX or some other gold shares. There is no reason to try the short side. You have to go with your own judgement or convictions in this game. Nothing else is acceptable. What made me all of a sudden toss away my usual good judgement and enter a trade like that? I don't know. You've always got to be on guard against yourself. It is a most difficult thing to do. But sometimes you just blow it and that is what I have done with this trade. I should probably just get out in the morning and move on. That could be the best thing to do. Even if it makes some money it still sucks as a trade. Gold is moving up, with a pause here and there. Like I said, it was dumb and now I'll just have to suffer the consequences of my actions. There are no excuses in this game. You just move on and hope that the mistakes don't repeat themselves. They won't if you have any sense about it. But it is an ongoing battle and I try my best. You just have to have confidence in yourself and your ideas. Believe in yourself, that's the key. Don't let others influence your decisions and choices. Do the research and go with your own conclusions. Your thoughts and ideas are just as good as the rest of the players in the game. In fact they are probably better because you've been playing for quite a while and have seen a lot of things. So hang in there, stick with it and good things will happen.

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