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Friday, October 03, 2014

Quite a session as the Dow rallied on above average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The jobs number was high and the market took off from the open.  The summation index hasn't turned around yet but it is about to with more positive action.  I assumed that the zero line on the summation index would be taken out with a steep decline.  After today, it looks like the zero line will hold and contain this recent decline.  The daily S&P 500 candlestick chart now has a bullish bottoming pattern on it.  The banks stocks are doing well here and there can be no extended decline when these stocks are doing well.  GS would be an example of that.  My October OEX puts are still in the black.  I can thank a good opening spot for the position for that.  I will have to exit on a retest of the lows of this week, if that occurs.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light.  I do think the earnings here will be impacted by the recent rally in the US dollar.  So I am waiting on getting some March calls for next year.  Gold broke through the $1200 level today as the bear market for metals hits new lows.  The US dollar soared on the day and is parabolic in nature.  The XAU fell 3 1/4.  ABX and NEM dropped 1/2, while GG fell a buck.  Volume was good for the gold shares to the downside again.  The price dropped past my stop loss order for the ABX January calls that I own early this morning.  I simply sold them at the market when that happened.  That is another of the new risk management rules I've put in place.  If the price goes past the stop loss price, just get out at the market.  This won't happen often but it could occur.  The loss here was just a bit over 50%.  I don't know how much lower the gold shares can go but this is beyond ridiculous.  Oversold, staying there and it looks like gold wants to go to $1000 after today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All of the major stock indices are showing positive daily candlestick charts after todays action despite recently breaking their up trend lines.  We are also right up against the down trend line for the S&P 500 that began in mid-September.  I expect that line will be broken to the upside next week.  The only thing that would change the positive outlook would be a very negative week next week.  I do not think that will happen.  Some of the technical indicators got to levels this past week that contained previous declines.  It seems as if they have contained this decline as well.  Speaking of declines, gold and silver continue a relentless move lower.  The gold shares as well.  It all seems to be US dollar related.  I will probably not trade gold again this year.  I've lost way too much money there already.  I was pleased that I simply sold off the losing ABX call position today.  I actually did what I was supposed to do for a change, even if it was for a loss.  I did not move the stop lower even though the contracts don't expire until January.  So at least I did something right this year.  Now I will have to decide how to get rid of the October OEX puts.  I'll debate that over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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