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Friday, October 10, 2014

Downside continues as the Dow fell 115 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative.  The negative reaction to the break of the zero line in the summation index continues.  The summation index also continues lower.  The small stocks got clobbered again and are still leading the way lower.  That is a negative.  I do not know how long that this decline will last but there are only five days left in the October option cycle.  My October OEX puts are solidly in the black.  When to sell them is the ongoing question.  GE was down 1/2, volume was heavy and we have taken out the recent low.  If GE is a precursor, it spells more trouble for the stock indices.  Solidly below the 50 week moving average here now.  I'm looking at the March calls but will wait to make a purchase.  Gold finished the session a bit lower on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  The XAU fell 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after being higher earlier.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are following the overall stock market lower.  I'm not exactly sure what to do here so it would be wise just to stay out.  The gold shares are very cheap but who is to say that they can't get cheaper?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is indeed falling apart at this juncture.  How low will we go?  It is something to consider over the weekend.  We closed near the lows for the day and that isn't a good sign.  I'm guessing that next week should be pretty interesting.  Oversold on the short term and almost there medium term.  I still think it's a time to be cautious.  As I said yesterday we may not crash but falling apart every day is an option to that.  Plenty to consider over the weekend.  Gold held up this week but who can say if that will last?  The fundamentals of a stronger US dollar combined with the looming threat of higher rates isn't and hasn't been a positive for gold.  However, if the roughly $1200 level holds, then the gold shares might be a trade for the calls.  Hasn't happened yet.  The gold shares have been blown out to the downside for weeks and they keep going lower.  We are at an interesting point for the stock indexes.  The Dow has held up a lot better than most.  We're heading lower and the question is how far and how fast?  Keep an eye out for your longer term buys because this month will be the time to make them.  The timing, as usual is the hard part.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to hopefully be prepared for Monday morning.  Monday is a partial holiday in the US and some foreign markets will be closed.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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