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Friday, November 09, 2012

The market tried to rally today but when it was all said and done the Dow only managed a gain of 4 points.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to hold in at the -150 level, which has been the stopping point in momentum since June.  The stock indices remain oversold on a daily technical basis.  Expiration week is coming up.  It remains to be seen if the usual positive bias will be in effect this time around.  I'd simply be guessing if told you where we are heading next for the S&P 500.  We are right at the 200 day moving average and this is where the battle will be to stop the decline.  It has held so far.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  No trade there for now.  Gold gained $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was off 2 1/2 though.  ABX down 3/8, GG and NEM dropped 3/4.  Volume was light.  I've left in the open order for the ABX January calls for now.  I may switch to IAG.  The technicals for gold itself are short term overbought now, while the gold share technicals are mid-range.  I'll have to ponder this idea once again over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the US election out of the way but the market not only didn't care, it sold off.  Probably because the outcome only guarantees more of the same political infighting that has gone on since the beginning of politics.  The stock indexes are technically oversold and staying there.  That is not bullish.  Perhaps expiration week can start to turn things around but I don't know.  Gold caught a bid this week and that has stopped the month long decline.  Whether or not this is the beginning of another attempt to the $1800 level remains to be seen.  The gold shares lagged this week.  With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I won't be trying any trades on that short of a duration.  The December options have an extra weeks time on them but one of the week there is a holiday week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and make some sense of things.  Friday afternoon is here and it is time to start to enjoy the weekend. 

1 comment:

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