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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Oversold and staying there is never a good combination for the bulls.  The Dow is now in the fall apart mode as we lost 185 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  No positive expiration week bias this month.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator has broken down from the -150 level.  We will now probably see a washout decline and then a snap back rally.  Within the next 3 days or so, if I had to guess.  The S&P 500 couldn't hold the 200 day moving average and followed the over the counter stocks through that level.  The game has changed and did so about a month ago.  GE fell 2/3 on heavy volume.  We've reached the 200 day moving average here.  Probably won't hold here as well.  It obviously isn't a time to own stocks and probably won't be for a while.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and fell back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar again had very little change on the day.  The XAU followed the overall market lower and dropped 8 1/4 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost over a dollar and change on good volume.  The gold shares continue to under perform gold itself.  My open order for the January ABX calls was filled.  It is already a loser by about 20%.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  However if the overall liquidation mode continues, the gold shares will continue to fall as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much lower can we go here?  Probably lower than most think at the moment.  We may just run down into the expiration on Friday.  Rallies will most likely be sold into from now on.  Any compelling reasons to own stocks here?  The psychology of the market has changed.  Gold still is holding up rather well.  The Gold/XAU ratio is clearly in the buy zone for the gold stocks.  But we saw this before earlier this year and it did not work.  I was looking at IAG for a possible candidate for the January calls as well.  It missed on earnings last night and was clobbered today, off 20% in just one session.  Perhaps my idea on the gold shares is off the mark here as well.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

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