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Friday, November 16, 2012

The market is trying to hold in here but the rally attempt has been weak so far.  The Dow rose 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  Those numbers will move the McClellan oscillator from the deeply oversold condition but the accompanying price movement was tepid.  We have a holiday week coming up and there is really no reason to buy stocks.  I would like to see more of a decent snap back before I believe the decline is over.  Hasn't happened yet.  The technicals remain oversold.  GE didn't do much again on average volume.  Hovering around the 200 day moving average here.  Gold didn't do much today but the US dollar closed up for the day after being much higher during the session.  The XAU gained 1 1/3.  ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG had a fractional loss.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are underwater.  It looks as though I have bought these calls too early.  Plenty of time for this trade to work but it already has the feel of a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the stock indices went lower into the expiration today before bouncing back a little.  That was a possible scenario discussed earlier.  Where we go from here it what matters now.  The December options have an extra week on them.  We're still oversold on the technicals and still haven't seen a good rebound.  That is a problem going forward.  Gold has held up pretty good here but the gold shares have gotten pummeled.  This relationship has to change if the ABX call trade is going to work for me.  The fact that we have a lot of recent Mideast turmoil and the price of gold hasn't rallied is troublesome for the bullish cause.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend and the charts must be checked as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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