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Monday, May 16, 2005

A day late. The Dow soared 112 points today. Volume was OK for a Monday and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Sometimes you're just a little off with the timing. That is what happened on the last trade. It may prove to have been a winner if I had held on to it but at the time it had to be sold. In retrospect I should have moved to the other strike price that was closer to being in the money. But I had already had in the overnight order. The idea and the theory were right but the timing was a bit off. And so it goes. I put in 3 different orders for the XAU to day as it looks like this has reached bottom. But none were filled. My thinking is that the inflation numbers of the next 2 days will be tame and the dollar will sell off some. Again, this is just a guess but the technicals are blown out to the downside on the gold shares and I am just looking for a bounce with 4 days to go before expiration. Gold itself was down around a buck today. All uptrend lines have been violated in these issues and it is important to remember this is a bounce move. Any profit would have to be taken quickly as would any loss. I'm not sure I should even be doing any trades here but I would like to get something done on the plus side. Of course the XAU could keep dropping and that would add up to another loss but this seems as good a time as any to give it a shot. The media is now hyping the fact that metals are being sold off and that usually means it's the bottom. Getting back to the overall market, the summation index perhaps is again pointing upwards after todays action. It's never good to miss a move but at least my brain is getting back together after being out there somewhere for the past couple of months it seems. I still need to work on the discipline and motivation necessary for success. Usually it's not a problem but it has been lately. Perhaps an overnight order for the XAU is what I'll attempt. We'll see...

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