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Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Another good day for the markets as the Dow gained 131 points. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive while the volume was average. We've gotten a decent bounce and if my prognosis for lower prices is correct, that should be about it. However the possibility remains that I could be wrong and the decline is over. In that case we will be going on to a new recovery high. The summation index has not turned around yet so I'm sticking with the bearish case for now. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold had a great day, up over $20 to a new all time high. The XAU rose 10 points. I cannot believe how many times I have missed out on gold. I was there but did not have the conviction to just get long. I really need to work on that. ABX up 2, GG up 2 1/3 and NEM up 3 all on good volume. The dollar fell again and is at support. If it doesn't hold, gold will go much higher I think. However if the market turns around here and starts to fall again, the dollar will see some buying. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So gold is taking off and I'm not in it again. The weekly gold share charts looked bearish and the market just turned around. However the daily dollar chart was overbought. At any rate, where we go from here is what matters. I'm sticking with the bearish OEX scenario for the October option cycle. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

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