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Thursday, October 05, 2017

The rally lives on and picks up steam as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought to the extreme at this point.  I was stopped out of the final SPY October put trade for another roughly 30% loss.  My line of thinking for these trades just was not the right one.  Despite being overbought for days the market just climbed higher.  This is a speculative blow off top in my opinion.  How much further that it goes is up for debate.  But it won't last forever.  That said, there is no overhead resistance and we are hitting new all time highs each session.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was down six bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired as I did not sleep well again.  The employment report is due out tomorrow and that should be the near term driver of prices.  RUT has stalled recently so perhaps we'll get a pause in the rally soon.  But the truth is the market will go where it wants.  This overbought rally is a good example of that.  I'll have to stay on the sidelines for now as the recent string of losses has got my confidence to a low level.  A short pot here today as I'm not feeling well either.  Europe and Asia were both generally higher last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

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