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Friday, November 03, 2017

The Dow rose 23 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move lower.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow probably due to the gains in AAPL.  The employment report came and went with no real effect on things.  We sold off early and then just resumed the climb.  The technical conditions haven't changed.  Overbought both short and medium term and staying that way for weeks.  I have no clue how much longer this will go on but it will end eventually.  A lower summation index without lower prices is probably bullish.  However I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY.  GE was up 20 cents on heavy volume.  It almost made it to ten days in a row lower.  I'm still waiting for the dividend cut to purchase the longer term calls.  It shouldn't be long now.  I do think there could be some more tax loss selling in December though.  I may have to rethink this idea.  Gold lost $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Still short term oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  When I'm feeling mentally tired, I usually make mistakes.  Sitting things out for now.  Earnings are winding down, we've got the jobs report out of the way, the new Fed chief has been announced and we've seen Trumps tax plan.  My thinking is, what's left to drive things higher?  At some point we've got to see some selling just to get the indicators out of the overbought zone for most of the major stock indices.  The RUT and the TRAN are some of the ones not in the overbought zone on a short term basis at the moment.  Along with the NYA, which also has the contracted Bollinger bands.  A lot of the time the RUT is the leader and if so this time around we should see some weakness overall pretty soon.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I suppose I should just be thankful I'm not laddering the SPY puts again.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend.  However at this juncture I'm in a more of a wait and see mode.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll get to fall back over the weekend but for now it's time for a rest.

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