Friday, January 11, 2008
Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 246 points. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Where we go from here is the question, with no easy answer. Option expiration week coming up. The summation index is moving sideways and that doesn't help matters. The downside bias does remain though. I don't think I'll be buying OEX calls next week but you never know. There are not any clear signals at the moment. Gold is the place to be, up another 4 bucks and touched $900 today. I would expect some profit taking here but it hasn't happened yet. The XAU gained 3/4. ABX was up good, by over 1 1/2 on heavy volume. NEM managed 3/4 on heavy volume too. I might try the NEM calls next week again but we are very overbought on the gold shares. However the last nice move in gold presented the same scenario with the overbought condition lasting for weeks. We'll see. It's the only trade on the horizon at the moment. GE was down 3/4 on good volume. Earnings in a week. I'll try my best to stay away from it. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. I'll take the weekend for a little rest and checking of the charts. Inflation data out next week and that should be a market mover. Volatility remains so the option premiums are still very high. However by the middle of the week the premium will start to get sucked out rather quickly and the option prices will deteriorate. That's indeed something to take into consideration for any trades next week. Otherwise, it's the weekend and time for a break.