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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Well, we tried to stay up today but it didn't work. The Dow rallied early, held its gains for most of the day and then fell in the final hour to end down 83 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was heavy again. I had an order in for some OEX puts early but wasn't filled. Tomorrow will be very important. If we close substantially lower, then I think it will signal weaker markets to come down the road. You need to build on 300+ point up days. Today was a one day reversal to the downside. The inflation data was weaker then I expected so I was wrong there. We'll see about tomorrows data. Gold rose $15 today but the XAU managed only a 2 point gain. ABX and NEM were both up about a 1/4 on light volume. The next trade for me at this point will probably be some gold share puts. GE also opened much higher and closed with a loss on average volume. I am going to try and wait for things to settle out there. Mentally I'm OK, got a relatively good nights rest. It is hard to stay out of the market but with 2 days left in this option cycle it is the prudent thing to do. As much as I think that tomorrow will be a down day there really isn't a clear signal. That toughest battle is always within oneself. Discipline is such a hard thing to do sometimes. It follows the overall theme of how tough it is to succeed in this game. But you've gotta keep on going. There will be other trades with good set-ups in the future...

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