Friday, July 27, 2012
A powerful follow through to yesterdays action as the Dow closed above 13000 for the first time in 3 months. The Dow gained 187 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index back to the upside. I was wrong once again thinking that the earlier this week break of the up trend line in the S&P 500 would lead to further weakness. Of course I didn't know the European Central Bank would announce that it's ready to flood the markets with money but my idea was wrong anyway. We've broken through the resistance for the S&P 500 on good volume and should move higher from here to attack the 1420 level. We don't need to know why there is a rally, we just need to recognize that fact and try to profit from it. GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume. Breaking out to the upside here as well. I'm considering the August 21 calls if they get cheaper. I do not like to chase moves and the short term technicals are overbought now. Gold gained a couple of bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was weaker yet again today. I still don't think that gold has moved as much as it should with such extensive weakness in the US dollar this week. The XAU was up around 1 3/4. ABX fell 1/3, GG was up 1/8 and NEM dropped 1 1/2 on poor earnings. Volume was heavy in ABX and NEM. I sold my August ABX calls for almost a 100% loss. Even with 3 weeks to go the calls were too far out of the money to ever show a profit. It's better to put that trade behind me and move on. I'll continue to hold the ABX October calls and they are in the red. The major gold producers and the gold shares in general have not kept pace with the gains in the precious metal. That usually isn't a bullish sign. The October calls have about 3 months to go. The weekly technicals for the gold shares are oversold but that doesn't mean that they can't remain there. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices are in rally mode. GDP came in as expected. Weakness can be bought in my opinion. The summer has been anything but quiet once again. It's possible that the XAU and some of the gold shares are putting in a double bottom here on the weekly charts. Time will tell on that. I just booked another big losing trade and there is nothing good to be said about that. The lost money and mental capital has to be forgotten about in a hurry because the markets won't wait. The markets don't care. I'll have to regroup over the weekend and be ready for Monday morning. We've got plenty of economic data out next week and the Fed announcement on Wednesday. But for now it's a Friday summer afternoon and time for a rest.