Monday, July 23, 2012
Not a typical summer Monday as the Dow was rocked early by the problems in Europe once again. We were down over 200 but made a comeback to finish the day with a loss of 101 points. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. It certainly could have been a lot worse and the fact that we came back leads me to believe that we are not on the verge of some major market meltdown. But anything can happen I suppose. Europe was off the radar for a while, now it's back. It will go away again and then come back. This situation is like a broken record and it will not be solved anytime soon. It makes the trading tougher than it already is. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good. This is another reason why the decline probably doesn't have legs in my opinion. GE is at times a proxy for the overall market. We'll see how this plays out. No trades here for me now. Gold was off $5 on the futures but was lower early on as well. The US dollar had some strength today on the flight to safety. The XAU could not follow once again as it lost 4 points. ABX off a buck, GG fell 3/4 and NEM lost 2/3. Volume was light. I canceled the open order that I had for the October ABX calls before the market opened. I then replaced that order with a lower price when ABX opened lower. That order was filled. I still hold the August ABX calls as well that I should be getting rid of after the earnings report out on Thursday. That trade will be a loser. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So now all eyes will be back on Europe and whatever news comes out of there. The headline risk returns to the marketplace. Once again, that can cause things to go either way. I do not have any OEX trades in mind for now. I'm trying the ABX calls again and they haven't worked for me yet this year. Plenty of time on this trade as it goes out for 3 months. We'll see what happens. There's a potential positive RSI divergence on the daily chart and the Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts to the buy side. That ratio hasn't worked well as of late but that won't be the case forever. We'll watch things overseas tonight and go from there.