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Thursday, July 05, 2012

A bit of weakness before the jobs report as the Dow fell 47 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  In a holding pattern for the stock indices until tomorrow.  Still short term overbought here.  The summation index continues higher.  I don't think that the summer rally has ended, even if we do move lower tomorrow.  The markets appear to be in holiday mode.  GE was off 1/8 on that very light volume.  I might still try the July calls before the earnings announcement but not completely sold on that idea.  Gold fell today as the US dollar posted a strong session.  The gold futures were off over $10, which wasn't too bad considering the strength in the dollar.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX down 5/8, GG lost 3/8 and NEM fell 2/3.  Volume was average for ABX, light otherwise.  My ABX August calls lost some ground but are still showing a profit.  The technicals for ABX are mid-range on a daily basis.  My plan here is to hold onto the calls for a while, probably into the earnings report at the end of the month.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment report and the market reaction to it will be the key for the near term.  Perhaps the strength in the US dollar today was a clue that the numbers won't be so bad tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  There also are not as many players as usual due to the mid-week holiday.  That can skew things as well.  We'll see what happens in the morning and go from there.

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