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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

The Dow once again made a last hour comeback but it wasn't enough to prevent the 3rd triple digit down day in a row.  The Dow fell 104 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  We were off 200 at one point intraday.  The summation index is now moving to the downside.  We've broken the up trend line in the S&P 500 that has been in effect since the beginning of June.  We could snap back to that line but the trend has changed.  Not oversold yet on the daily technicals for the stock indices but we are working or way down there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume and has held up rather well here.  Perhaps what we will get for the overall market is more sideways action instead of a huge decline.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades in GE for me at the moment.  Gold bounced around today but finished the day little changed on the futures.  The US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU was down 3/8.  ABX fell 1/2 on good volume, while GG and NEM were little changed on light volume.  My ABX calls for August and October are losers as ABX cannot find any support whatsoever.  At this rate the earnings out on Thursday won't make a difference.  The gold shares are still under performers with relation to the price of gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes have been roiled by Europe once again.  The 50 day moving averages are getting close to breaking down through the 200 day moving averages on a daily basis.  That is not a positive sign.  Puts are probably the way to go or simply head to the sidelines.  The relationship between the price of gold and the gold shares has hit an extreme in my opinion.  One of two things will happen.  Either the price of gold will have to fall quite a bit or the gold shares will have to rally.  We'll see what happens.  I'm holding losing trades for ABX and the earnings are due out before the bell on Thursday.  The August calls I have are probably dead.  We'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.

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