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Wednesday, April 29, 2015

An interesting session as the Dow fell 74 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The GDP report was weak and the market responded with a sell off.  The Fed was viewed as slightly hawkish but we bounced around after that.  The TRAN and the small stocks remained weak and that isn't bullish.  Some of the foreign markets were very weak, so I guess we held up OK for today.  The technical indicators have rolled over for the small stocks and are just beginning to for the larger cap averages.  I suppose I'll have to change my bullish stance to cautious for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  I'm still considering the June calls here when GE gets oversold.  Gold had an interesting day as well.  The futures were down a few bucks despite the US dollar getting crushed again.  That did not make sense to me.  The futures fell a bit more after the Fed but it wasn't a rout.  The gold shares fared much better as the XAU rose about 2/3 and GDX about 1/4.  Volume was good.  ABX added about 20 cents on good volume.  I sold my ABX calls after the Fed for a small 15% gain.  The timing was bad but at least it wasn't a loss.  ABX recovered for the rest of the session.  I do not usually do well with short term option trades and this was no exception.  Back to the drawing board.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  The Dow held up OK considering the drops we saw overseas.  I do not have any SPY trades in mind for now but if a decent signal appears before the May expiration, I may give it a try.  It appears that the market is trying to make up its mind which way to go here.  We haven't really had a sustained move one way or the other for a while.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  The action in the gold shares today ended up positive considering the decline in gold.  I may had sold the ABX May calls early.  Make no mistake.  You do not put in the time and the effort to trade options for a 15% gain.  You are really looking at 100% or more gains to take on the risk in that game.  I was late to try this trade and attempted to trade the break out.  It still looks like ABX has broken out but it hasn't been what I expected yet.  I'll simply have to wait for the next idea to come with the gold shares.  GG reports earnings tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see if the Dow follows through to the downside to close out the month. 

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