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Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Trying to head higher as the Dow gained 75 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  New all time highs today for some of the stock indices.  Others are knocking on the door.  A negative today was the TRAN though, as it finished well off of its highs.  I dumped the SPY April calls that I had for a gain of around 35%.  I didn't get the best price of the day but I could not hold on to this trade any longer.  Even with 2 days left here, I could not risk it.  The technical indicators are short term overbought for the major stock indices.  We could stay that way but we could roll over here as well.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume is still heavy.  We haven't been able to build on the gains of last Friday here.  Earnings due in 2 days.  A move back to $26.50 will get me interested in the calls again.  Gold was up 8 bucks today on the futures.  The US dollar continues to decline.  A weaker dollar helps support the stock market here as well.  The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume picked up to the upside.  ABX is at the top of its trend channel here at $13.  I'll wait for it to head back down to the bottom of the channel before attempting the calls.  Or it could be that the down trend for the gold shares is over here and I simply have missed the boat.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now it's a matter of finding the next trade.  I'm still leaning to the bullish side for now, even with the overbought condition.  If the S&P 500 breaks out to a new high, there is no overhead resistance.  But perhaps patience will be the best course of action for now.  GE has the earnings report on Friday.  I suppose if I had more guts, I could buy the at the money puts and calls tomorrow and see what happens.  One side would expire worthless and the other would be profitable.  That is how it would work in theory anyway.  Gold seems to be in a drift at the moment.  However the gold shares have out performed recently and that is a positive.  We are entering a period of possible under performance for gold according to the calendar.  Any gold share call buying should probably be postponed for now.  That's my best guess at the moment.  We'll watch what happens overnight and go from there.  

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