Monday, April 13, 2015
A one day reversal to the downside to begin expiration week as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 80 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Not a good start to the week for the bulls. The summation index is still moving higher but another day like today will change that. My SPY April calls had a slight profit this morning but are now losers. I'm at least going to give them until tomorrow, with retail sales coming out in the morning. We also have the Fed beige book on Wednesday. However I cannot hold this trade forever. GE opened with a gap lower and never recovered. It fell 7/8 on very heavy volume. There was a negative article about GE in Barrons over the weekend, so the good feelings of the restructuring got wiped out quickly. There are still the earnings on Friday to digest. My GE April calls never got back to the ten bagger that they were at the close on Friday. I decided to just take what I could get and be thankful for that. I dumped the calls for a 600% profit. Luck was the overriding factor in that trade. Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed by the end of the session. The XAU lost a point and GDX was down 1/8 or so. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Almost back to full strength as well. We are knocking on the door to new all time highs on some of the major stock indices. We will need to see some kind of catalyst to move higher and I'm not sure what that could be. Unless we head higher tomorrow, I'm afraid that the SPY April call trade will be a loser. Todays price action was not positive. The only plus was the very light volume. More an absence of buyers, then real selling. But that could all change in a flash. I'll be keeping an eye on things. GE did not have any positive follow through. It was disappointing but that trade is over now. I'm advising patience for the gold shares. Calls will be in order again once we get back to oversold territory. It should take a while. Earnings will be another hurdle to get over in a month or so. No rush to put on a call trade here. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower overnight and take it from there.