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Thursday, April 30, 2015

To the downside on heavy volume to close out the month of April.  The Dow fell 195 points and was negative all day long.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index lower.  The TRAN and the small stocks got whacked.  It looks like lower prices are in the near future.  The small stocks have broken the uptrend line from last October.  I'd expect the larger cap issues to follow.  So look for more selling.  GE only lost a penny on good volume.  That is excellent relative strength.  I still like the June calls or perhaps July if we move down to $26-$26.50.  No hurry with a defensive overall market.  Gold got clobbered and fell over $25 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  I do not understand the disconnect with these two markets at the moment.  The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed about 2/3.  Volume was good.  The gold shares have once again held up rather well despite the drop in gold.  We'll see how we close out the week here tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears a decent decline is starting and it looks like I missed it.  Perhaps I was too focused on ABX.  More likely my prognosis for higher prices was just wrong.  No money lost at least.  Two weeks to go in the May option cycle after tomorrow.  Perhaps if we get short term oversold, I could try a bounce trade.  However it looks like the trend has changed.  GLD and SLV had gaps to the downside.  That doesn't bode well for the precious metals.  GG came out with earnings and they disappointed.  So trading the long side in the gold shares right now probably isn't a good idea.  The European markets stopped going down yesterday.  We'll see how they react to todays US decline overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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