Friday, May 01, 2015
The market stormed back to the upside today as the Dow gained 183 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 183 market would suggest. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps? Do we begin another assault on new all time highs from here or was today a bounce for you to get short? That is the question and at this time I don't have an answer. You can make a case either way. The summation index is heading lower, so I don't think that the weakness is over. The small stocks are not leading the way here as well. But it could be that the big caps will lead the way higher, which happens towards the end of extended rallies. Obviously I don't have a clear idea of what is occurring at the moment. GE was up 1/4 but the volume was lighter. I'm still constructive on GE but I need to time the next trade properly. I'll try and wait for an oversold condition. Not there yet. Gold was off about $8 on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce. The gold shares continue their out performance as both the XAU and GDX had small fractional gains. Volume was light. I'll wait for a decline here before trying any trades in the gold shares. We are still in a seasonally weak period for gold. The gold shares have bucked that trend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The month of May has started out on a positive note for the major stock indices. The TRAN had a very good day and that could bode well going forward. We'll have to see if there is any follow through on Monday. I do not have any SPY trade ideas right now. Perhaps the weekend chart studying will turn something up. The continued strength in the gold shares despite the drop in the precious metal is confusing. However the market always knows more than we do. It's something to keep an eye on. The market had plenty to digest this week and we'll get more data coming up including the employment report in a week. I'll be looking for a technical signal to initiate a position but I don't see one now. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.